Auburn/Buffalo - correlated parlay? - Page 3

kdog · #21 09-21-2006, 09:41 PM

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Good luck finding a book to take these parlays

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Mansion will take these. So will Bodog. If you look around I'm sure there are others.

ImBen · #22 09-21-2006, 10:27 PM

Question for the correlated parlay monkeys...

Given that a 10+ point NFL favorite has covered, what is the probability that the total went over?

Thremp · #23 09-21-2006, 11:04 PM

Post deleted by Performify

MyTurn2Raise · #24 09-21-2006, 11:09 PM

i'm definitely going to do a bridgejumper on this

Homer · #25 09-21-2006, 11:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Question for the correlated parlay monkeys...

Given that a 10+ point NFL favorite has covered, what is the probability that the total went over?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea, but would like to know or know where I can find out.

ImBen · #26 09-22-2006, 06:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Question for the correlated parlay monkeys...

Given that a 10+ point NFL favorite has covered, what is the probability that the total went over?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea, but would like to know or know where I can find out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since 1993, the answer is 49.73%.

How about 10+ point dogs that cover? Those games stay under the total 49.49%.

Side/total correlation in football is a myth.

ThankgodforRB · #27 09-22-2006, 11:16 AM

ImBen, where did you get those numbers? I'm with you on this one, I am certain that people greatly oversetimate the number of correlated parlays that exist, but I haven't seen these 2 specific numbers before. I'm also wondering if you know the numbers for 20+ point favorites/dogs, 30+, etc.

Homer · #28 09-22-2006, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Question for the correlated parlay monkeys...

Given that a 10+ point NFL favorite has covered, what is the probability that the total went over?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea, but would like to know or know where I can find out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since 1993, the answer is 49.73%.

How about 10+ point dogs that cover? Those games stay under the total 49.49%.

Side/total correlation in football is a myth.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm mildly surprised, but am curious what happens when you talk about college games and only 17+ favorites, 24+ favorites and so on.

I would be surprised if +42 and u49 didn't have some correlation.

Thremp · #29 09-22-2006, 11:24 AM

I think you could run Poisson distributions or some other statistical method for avg. scores and see how often they both came in. The scores are way too close for there not to be correlation.

smbruin22 · #30 09-22-2006, 11:47 AM

one question and one comment...

why is auburn-buffalo such a good candidate for correlated parlay? is it because the spread and the O/U are fairly close to each other??.... i want to research how often auburn and buffalo have been in huge blowouts the last couple of years (and buffalo's up-and-coming, and auburn didn't score much last week, albeit against LSU)

i know understand the math in that article ... without juice on 2-team parlay, you have to hit 25% to break-even. with juice, 27% or similar... didn't realize some of the better parlays are so low volume, and i see twominutewarning.com is putting the recent results on correlated parlays in the subscriber section...