$225- why do I always get the toughest decisions in my one $200 SNG?

[suzzer99]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1480)
MP1 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1600)
Button (t2100)
SB (t820)
BB (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is in MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, CO calls t60, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t40

Flop: (t190) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t140</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to t1440 (All-in)</font>, Hero?

Villian is unknown. I do have some stats on him at 23/23 over a small # of hands.

[sence25]

I don't think you can fold this against an unknown.

[donkeykong2]

i d fold, as it s a 225 i dont see this being the donkey with just the ac (pair+club) often enough. he might do this with sets, too.

[Pudge714]

Fist pump. Guy who don't play HSSNGs underestimate the retardness of people in high buyin SNGS. There are still tons of complete retards he can have tons of stupid diamonds and stuff call. A race here isn't a race there is a ton of overlay.

[DMACM]

The fact that he called a preflop raise weights his hands toward a pocket pair assuming hes decent.

333
444
definte possibility

ttt less likely

theres also some chance he has Ad Jx or Ad Qx or Ad Tx. Ad Kx.


The only thing you're really happy to see is AT no diamond.

I think your racing 40% of the time and crushed 45% of the time (by a set) destroyed maybe 5% of the time by a flush and significantly ahead 10%. With the pot odds you are given this is an easy fold.

[Ditch Digger]

I hate getting it in here because he always seems to hit when he isn't crushing us, but there's no way I'm folding to an unknown.

[kkcountry]

[ QUOTE ]
Guy who don't play HSSNGs underestimate the retardness of people in high buyin SNGS. There are still tons of complete retards he can have tons of stupid diamonds and stuff call. A race here isn't a race there is a ton of overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

shhhhhhhhhhhh everyone's supposed to think that everything above the 27s is unbeatable due to perfect play by everybody

[kleath]

Quit being a nit

Dont think about folding here unless you KNOW your range is crushed

[DMACM]

We are:

11% vs 3 fours
53% vs AdJc

He has 7d 8d probably as much as he had Ax Tx

we are calling 1300 to win 1770.

lets say he has a set half the time and Ad x the other half

44.5% we lose 1300 -578
5.5% we win 1770 +97.35 480.65 240

23.5% we lose 1300 -305.5
26.5% we win 1770 +469.05 164 328

-316.6 chips if its 50 50 set or flush draw plus over card

+88 chips if we are up up against an over and a flush draw twice as much as vs a set.

This ignores ICM which tilts more towards a fold, and I think its unrealistic he has less than an over plus a flush draw very often.

What is everyone expecting to see that doesn't involve us going out at least half the time early on getting 1.3:1 odds?

[Eagles]

WTF this is such an easy fold... calling here is sososososo bad. Like its not close. I can't believe good players are advocating a call here.

I also might check flop. For people wondering why its such a trivially easy fold. Consider your equity vs better hands consider your equity vs worse hands.