Getting from a commitment plan to the optimal line...(not2long)

[Niggel]

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1380
UTG+1: t1675
MP1: t1860
CO: t5575
Button: t1380
SB: t1650
Hero: t1480

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, CO calls t30 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t45)</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t60</font>, Hero calls t30 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t120)</font>, CO calls t30 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t150)</font>.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t180, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets t120</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to ?</font>

SB:
A) Loose-Passive (PF minraise-range: 10%)

B) Loose-Aggressive Maniac (PF minraise-range: 30%)

C) Tight-Passive (PF minraise-range: 6%)

D) TAG (PF minraise-range: 5% - AA and KK are more likely than AQs or 99)

Okay I will first post my thoughts to every opponent type and how I would play the flop. If you spot some wrong thinking on my turn or a good alternative, please comment. Later I want to talk about the Bet Sizes and how our commiment plan looks and how we should manipulate the pot against every single opponent to get the most value.

My thoughts
A) I would definitely raise here. We are ahead of his range and he is not crazy and won't try to bluff us on the turn. He is passive which should raise our curiosity because he is betting into 2 players. He certainly got some piece of that flop. I still think that we are ahead and should raise.

B) In a heads-up pot I might call to let him fire another bullet on the turn which we could raise but with one opponent behind I think we <font color="orange">HAVE</font> to raise because of the flushdraw.

C) Seeing a flop is not standart if he is that passive I'd muck PF. On the flop we are likely to be behind and we should not make the pot big bigger with a raise. Against an somewhat looser opponent I might find a call here but our standart should be fold.

D) Probably fold PF. Fold flop his range is crushing us and the fact that he is aggressive makes the min-raise more suspicous so it is likely that he might have flopped a set.

How much should we raise? What is our plan for the rest of the hand? Are we commited?

Against villian A) and B) I believe we should raise most of the time and be planning on getting it in on the flop. The question is how much do we bet and what do we do if a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes on the turn.
I think we can either make a small raise to t300 (creating a pot of t780 on the turn with t1120 left in our stack) or make a bigger raise to t450-500 (creating a pot of t1080-1180 on the turn with t920-970 left in our stack).
The smaller raise gives us a chance to get away from the hand if SB pushes a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the turn, but with the small raise we are giving him odds as well. So this doesn't seem really good.
The bigger raise commits us and the pot will be bigger than our stack on the turn. Even if a scare card gets there I wouldn't fold. Especially against the loose-aggro B) opponent. What do we do if he checks? I don't think that pot-control is very important in this hand so we should be betting which would mean AI. I just have the feeling that even bad villians would fold there Flushdraws and we can't get anymore value out of drawing hands here. Certainly not a bad result but is it the best?

The small raise would leave us more room on the turn and we might just bet t450 (villian doesn't not get odds to draw to his flush) and hope that he either draws or pays us off with hands like AT or JJ which he would have folded to a push.
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<font color="green">I hate spots like this and would just push the flop! Get you money in as a favourite and be happy! </font>

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I don't like a push because he will fold many hands we have beat and the range he is calling us with does good against our hand.

Both options do not make me completely happy so let's go back to an alternative we haven't really talked about: Calling (creating a pot of t420 w/o CO or t540 on the turn with t1300 left in our stack)! If CO (no reads and it doesn't matter too much regarding the question) pushes I think we can fold because we are beat most of the time wihtout having invested too much into the pot. If the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I'd slow down. If not I think we find ourselves in a easy/good spot because we can either push if SB bets again or we bet out t300-450 (and commit) if checked to us. I don't think it differs much if we raise SB on the flop or on the turn because his range doesn't change much.

This is not supposed to be a strategy post (even though I hope that beginners can learn some)! I really want to know if my thinking is correct and which line you would take!
Some people might wonder why I did assign a greater PF range to the loose-passive player than for the TAG. You could think that an aggressive player certainly raises more hands PF than a passive player, but for me a min-raise is not an aggressive move and passive players tend to minraise more than aggressive opponents. I just assume that players who are playing a TAG style have more understanding of the game and would min-raise rarely. I didn't include a buy-in because it's just important to get an idea of their playing styles (which are given in this Hand) and the quality of play. For this example I'd say the quality of play is not really high, but the villians are somehwat thinking players ($6.5-$27).

BTW: Good job for getting this far! You have read your 1000 words for today! Get some rest [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[CheeseMoney]

push

[Niggel]

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push

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Would you push here against A),B),C) and D) ??
I think if we get called we might be ahead of AJ, AT, A8 and a (bad played) Flushdraw. I think we see hands like AK a set or a monster draw more often! I am not arguing that a push is bad, but I just think that there are other options out there which might get more value out of your opponents and keep down your variance [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Edit: Nothing personal Cheese, but I hope that the really good players are still reading and will post their thoughts!

[IFoldPktOnes]

I am calling against A and B. It's good that you are thinking about how the specific stack sizes effect your play, but the most important reason for keeping the pot small in these situations can be explained by ICM.

How do you profit post-flop? By playing with a strategy that maximizes the your equity relative to the equity required to break-even in a given line, dictated by the ICM-adjusted pot odds. But, as the pot builds and your stack shrinks the difference between ICM-adjusted pot odds and the apparent pot odds increases, i.e. you need a greater edge over the apparent pot odds to make a profitable play.

When you have only a small edge over your opponents range your strategy should be to keep the pot small, so that this small edge can translate to a +EV play according to ICM. This same small edge can be wasted if you bloat the pot, becoming break-even or -EV according to ICM. This is because you have increased the edge over pot odds required for a +EV play according to ICM.

It's hard to explain this concept fully without writing an essay, maybe I could try and explain this more clearly and back it up with some ICM examples as a strategy post sometime.

[CheeseMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
push

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Would you push here against A),B),C) and D) ??
I think if we get called we might be ahead of AJ, AT, A8 and a (bad played) Flushdraw. I think we see hands like AK a set or a monster draw more often! I am not arguing that a push is bad, but I just think that there are other options out there which might get more value out of your opponents and keep down your variance [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Edit: Nothing personal Cheese, but I hope that the really good players are still reading and will post their thoughts!

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I guess I'm off the really good players list... disappointing. Obv I was joking... and the push joke was meant to be preflop... er, I hope it was obvious.

As to taking a line, I'll get back to you. One thing to think about is that preflop and flop are not really separate, and I'd recommend the 2p2 book Professional No-Limit Holdem, though it relates primarily to cash, it does a good job allowing you to plan your hand from the beginning, starting with preflop raise size. One suggestion is to generally try to get 10% of your stack in preflop if you plan on commiting to TPTK with a TP type hand (which you have). We have to make some huge adjustments with ICM here though, and the 10% rule is when you get the pot heads up.

EDIT: didn't realize the pot was 3 handed, so this changes a few things. OP, this was a good strategy question and I'll think about it when I get over my soul crushing football losses today.