I turn a set and check-call

[BadBigBabar]

i would like more bets to go in on the big streets; preferably the turn. i think his range is lower sets more than it is made straight, in which case we're ahead a lot on the turn. i think c/r and call down a 3 is probably okay. i don't think b/3b is quite as good although it's more of a hunch than anything else because when 4 bets go in we're behind a lot.

[mntndrew]

Things I believe to be true:

There are no hands that an actual tight player has that beat us on the turn.

If the player is a fairly loose cold caller, then A5s, 44-22 and other pocket pairs are in his range. When we're talking 65s, I think we're talking really loose.

If he is in fact really tight and really passive, he can hold AA-KK here.

A *relatively* tight passive player may get active with 44 on that flop. He has little reason to believe you have A5 or 65 and views you as a LAG. Just because he's passive against all the other passive players doesn't mean he doesn't realize how strong top set is against your EP raise.

Count, I think you play a little weak tight sometimes, you think I play a little aggrobot sometimes. Maybe we can learn something from each other.

[James.]

well. if he has 22, 33, 44, A5 or 56 you don't have the odds to make it past the flop. speaking of the flop, why did you 3bet? does he raise worse hands than one pair on a flop like that?

anyway, against that range you need 5.33-1 to call down when you hit your set on the turn. i think you're only getting around 4-1. still, you must call the turn with the FH/quads redraw and at that point on the river you're getting a very good price that he's "overplaying" a set.

to keep him from checking through a "weak" hand in his range, bet/folding the river seems like a decent option. mostly, the correct play on this hand is exclusively read-dependent. if you can include two pair hands or something you definitely need to give more action with top set. in fact, an argument could be made that given your image you need to be giving more action. but as i said, this is all read-dependent.

[Yads]

What were you hoping to catch on the turn? If you can't raise when you hit your gin card just fold the flop.

[Gap23Razor]

lots of interesting discussion on this hand concerning the villains holdings...i'd like to put in my thoughts, probably all has been said before

preflop possible hands of villain: 22, 33, 44, A5s, 65s, 54s, middle pair JJ-99...cold calling from the button with two players already in the pot and the blinds to act really doesn't seem too loose for all of the above hands, with potential of 4 opponents in the hand & having the button there are implied odds & position enough to justify cold calling i believe...43s, 32s too weak to play

flop action seems to say "made hand, but vulnerable"... thus middle pocket pairs are out (not made), and 65s too (65 is the nuts here so probably a slow play to the turn, why drive out the bb? just call and instead raise on the turn as it gets as much money in the pot as capping on the flop)

the flop action looks like an attempt to drive out gut shot draw that beat a set, split A5, or 54 two pair..

probability of each one of the above hands -- i think this is the calculation:

low set or A5s straight...6 x 3 combos of low set, 4 x 1 combo of A5s, 54s 4 x 1 - 22 out of 26 we are ahead on the turn when the T hits...

thus check/raise on the turn is the play, and call a 3 bet on the turn because of outs to make a house and beat the straight...or even leading out to three bet could be good to...here i think c/r is better as villain would likely just call out lead out or quit if we 3 bet him on the turn, but he might call a check/raise...does he think we are aggro? 3rd level thinking needed here to decide c/r or lead/3bet

i guess the designation of loose/passive is not precise enough for us all, as we each have our own interpretation of what those words mean when it comes to hand selection...and as you might guess, i figure betting is often protection motivated...

[Lethe]

[ QUOTE ]
i would like more bets to go in on the big streets; preferably the turn. i think his range is lower sets more than it is made straight, in which case we're ahead a lot on the turn. i think c/r and call down a 3 is probably okay. i don't think b/3b is quite as good although it's more of a hunch than anything else because when 4 bets go in we're behind a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BadBigBabar]

there's also a small chance he has aa imo

[TheCount212]

mtn, i most definitely plead guilty to having a weak-tight streak in me. I try to balance that tendency by playing decent cards and getting my good hands to showdown.. And I wasn't necessarily calling you an "aggrobot" (lol) personally.. just that there is a definite tendency of some to over-push value so thin that it's actually creating value for the opponent with a better hand.
But all told, I can probably learn more from aggrobots than they can from me. Yes, I have the "tight" part of TAG down cold.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
there's also a small chance he has aa imo

[/ QUOTE ]I think the entire hand hinges on how accurate OP's read is. If villain is really tight-passive, then he was most definitely behind on the flop, but most definitely ahead on the turn. If so, I also think the chances are very good villain has AA.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
there's also a small chance he has aa imo

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my first thought.

-McGee