How do I suck at poker? Let me demonstrate.

[threeducks]

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Grease,

I don't see a single one of those hands that I'm not raising on the flop. My aggression on the flop is something I've reined in recently in certain situations, but with top pair or an overpair here I don't think you can afford to give your 3-betting friend a chance to see another card without paying a premium.

Maybe A10o can stand to wait for the turn to defend if a safe (none diamond, none overcard) card hits. This is especially valid if you've got the BDFD, since you really want to see a turn card cheaply in that case.

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My friend threeducks... immerse yourself in the thinking espoused by Hyper here!

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Thanks Count. Ed Miller [ QUOTE ]
Flop an overpair? Raise and reraise the flop.
Flop top pair/top kicker? Likewise.

[/ QUOTE ] gave me the exact same advice now that I remember. Getting it again is great. I watched a hand develop between 2 players. By the heavy action we all thought a set or two pair. Nope - winner had KJ - top pair of Kings. I will give this some serious thought. Thanks

Edit - Raise or fold if next to act in a multiway pot?

[Grease]

Kit and I discussed this hand at some length, and our opinion is definitely not in agreement with 2p2 consensus (which is fine.)

I thought this was a very standard "wait for the turn" scenario where our equity could change greatly given the turn card, and I should have waited to see if I dodged scare cards. However, we both agreed that raising any turn was the correct play, even if it is a diamond or over, since our hand may still be best and we have to protect our hand in this multiway pot.

The reason I gave other overs was to see which ones wouldn't see a large equity change on the turn, and which ones would.

I'll let Kit weigh in (and hopefully tell me I didn't butcher what we talked about) before I say what I think.

[KitCloudkicker]

I've thought alot about this hand and I've decided that, like lots of things in poker, the answer is "it depends."

Preflop, there are 6x3=18 SBs in the pot. the sb leads out making it 19 bets. you raise making it 21 bets.

you raise. by raising you offer 10.5:1 immediate odds. thus any two pair draw, any 2 overcards and any gutshot have correct odds to call. even AK may have odds to catch 3 outs (when including possible implied odds). thus, from a pure odds standpoint, waiting for the turn is clearly superior.

however, this analysis oversimplifies things. there are other things to take into account.

1) when you raise, although they have correct odds, will hands like QJ/KQ actually call? most people who play 10/20 dont have the capacity to make tough pot odds-based decisions on the fly. it is obvious to me, for instance, that Grease has a broadway T in this spot (based on preflop action) and thus I'd call all day with QJ/KQ knowing I had around 4.5 outs. however, most people would probably be like "theres a raise, i cant chase my overs" and muck. thus 1 vote for raising the flop.

2) suppose the SB is leading with a weak T or a flush draw, and everyone calls. will he lead again on a scary turn card and even gives us an opportunity to raise the field on the turn? for many live players the answer is no. thus another vote for raising the flop.

all in all a tough choice, and given that this is a live game where the players arent very good, i think raising the flop might be the best option.

[James.]

why is everyone ignoring the superpassive player who 3bet our ass pf in a protected pot?

call the flop, see what uberpassive does and raise a safe turn.

[One Outer]

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1) when you raise, although they have correct odds, will hands like QJ/KQ actually call? most people who play 10/20 dont have the capacity to make tough pot odds-based decisions on the fly. it is obvious to me, for instance, that Grease has a broadway T in this spot (based on preflop action) and thus I'd call all day with QJ/KQ knowing I had around 4.5 outs. however, most people would probably be like "theres a raise, i cant chase my overs" and muck. thus 1 vote for raising the flop.


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This is exactly right and it's probably the biggest factor in my decision to raise this flop. Most opponents don't recognize the immediate odds they are being laid to chase marginal stuff like overs or gutshots. I see this constantly in my live game, particularly on the turn with non-nut flush draws and open enders; in fact, in the hand I posted last night (this morning?) I deliberately tried to force one of these mistakes against an almost certain flush draw and managed to fold it out with two bets on the turn.

I think sometimes in the forums we get dogmatic in this respect. I often see posts where hero raised the turn in a situation where their opponent was being laid proper odds to draw and hero justifies it by saying he was protecting his hand. Lots of times we usually end up saying something like "there's no point, he still has odds to draw," and I think this often misses the point.

I think this is probably one of the most common mistakes I see, at least in my live game, and I'm going to give my opponents a chance to make it all the time. They don't know they still have odds; all they know is that it's two cold to them and that it's scary. They think they're making a "smart" fold and I don't want to do anything to dissuade them from that.

[Hyperrrprank]

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Preflop, there are 6x3=18 SBs in the pot. the sb leads out making it 19 bets. you raise making it 21 bets.

you raise. by raising you offer 10.5:1 immediate odds. thus any two pair draw, any 2 overcards and any gutshot have correct odds to call. even AK may have odds to catch 3 outs (when including possible implied odds). thus, from a pure odds standpoint, waiting for the turn is clearly superior.


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I'm not actually of the opinion that waiting for the turn is a terrible move, you're right about there being a potentially big change in equity.

With regards to the thoughts about bloating the pot by raising, I think looking at the EV situation is crucial.

If we flat call, we're giving 20:1 to the next player. If he's holding a gutshot, his EV to call is 9.5sb. If we raise, suddenly his EV (minus implied odds of course) is 0. I don't think raising is likely to push him out unless he is a pretty weak player, but as we know the sum of the EV for all players must be zero. By raising, we've cut significantly the expectation of our opponent. Holding TPTK, surely some of that value is shifting our way.

Of course, this changes drastically if we put our opponent on a big pocket pair instead of overs or a gutshot. Just wanted to note that neglecting to raise simply because our opponent will likely call with anything isn't necessarily a taking the whole story into account.

[chesspain]

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somewhat LP player 3-bets (AKs-QQ maybe AKo, AQs or JJ, probably not TT.)

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why is everyone ignoring the superpassive player who 3bet our ass pf in a protected pot?

call the flop, see what uberpassive does and raise a safe turn.

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It's funny how "somewhat LP" morphs into "superpassive" and "uberpassive."