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#41
01-13-2007, 01:16 PM
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Re: Variance
Dean, I used to think exactly like you until 800 BB slide hit me in the face. Regardless of how good a player you are , there will be long stretches where you're just not dealt winning hands. Add to that the fact that when you are running bad it's fairly impossible to maintain any sort of good image and this will escalate your losses dramatically.
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#42
01-13-2007, 03:18 PM
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Re: Variance
I have high regard for Josh W's posts and they're always one of the first I go to in a thread. I'm only responding because I guess I'm one of the novices he referred to that Dean would have hoped to support his conclusion. I wonder if Josh thinks he could lose 1200BB's playing live?
I don't disagree with what the better high stakes players have said here about their situation. I also don't see how a player could lose 1200 BB's playing limit live and still think he's a winner at the game. I doubt Josh thinks he could lose that much live also. I seriously doubt it. I've read ggbman's take. He's obviously a very smart young man who has made a tremendous amount of money at poker and is wise beyond his years. Disagreeing with him is sobering. I've played online and think there's a major difference between being a winner live and online than just the number of hands. I'm a much better live player than online simply because I have a tremendous amount of added factors to aid in my decision making process than I do online. Whether Josh thinks it's a tremendous difference, who knows? His results say it could be but maybe it truly isn't the case. I know a guy who's played live full time for 5 years. He plays no higher than 30-60 limit. He's a solid, winning player cut from the TAG mold. The topic of running bad often comes up at the table. It always amuses me when he says running bad is overrated. That you can't run bad for months. I know others would say it's bs but they don't get what he means. What he means is what happened to me this week. I play NL Mon-Fri 5-6 hrs a day. This week on Mon I was card dead/missed for 5 hrs and lost a buy-in. Tues I sat down hot for the first 35 min, but cooled off quickly and lost < 1/2 BI. Wed was the same except for one big confrontation where I had the best of it, held up and won 2 BI's. Thurs won two small pots in 4 1/2 hrs that seemd like 4 1/2 years and lost > 1/2 BI. Fri the deck didn't hit me in the face, but it came my way and I won good. I played 30 hrs and won $60 an hr. If it was limit I'm still a small winner because I'd have lost a lot less also. Card wise, the week was brutally awful. A more than avg bad one.
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#43
01-13-2007, 03:24 PM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] but the main reason is that I refuse to play in a bad game in the Stars 2/4 [/ QUOTE ] So i guess you admit to playing in a bad 1/2 game against me hu? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Surely I've played in many a bad 1/2 game. I lack that discipline that I have for 2/4, thus my results in the 2/4 have been much better over the last 6 months.
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#44
01-13-2007, 03:32 PM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
Playing games you crush makes things so much easier. [/ QUOTE ] I'd be extremely suprised if anyone showed me an 800k hand set that didn't have a 500 bet downer in it. [/ QUOTE ] I can show you. But it's really do not prove anything except probably im as well as Dean are lucky bastards. [Cause i understand that such swings like 1000+BB's for positive limit player MUST happened] There will be always some very lucky players as well as unlucky. Some small percent of people i guess can afraid a lot of 150BB downswing after playing 500K hands. Cause i'm as well as Dean very much afraid of swings more than 450, - I stated for myself that if i loose 400BB - regardless of what i think of the quality of play - i _should_ have played bad and therefore i need to move down in limits, explore my game, analyze holes, look how most winners play. Another 400 - move down again. Same procedure. The last 400 - quit limit poker to switch to another game, as level of competition is so high compared to rake that such swings can happened on three different stakes. That even in lower stakes i can't acheive necessary EV to kill variance more quickly. It's a meaningfull difference between risking 500 to get 4000bb/year and risking 2000 to get 1000/year.
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#47
01-13-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if Josh thinks he could lose 1200BB's playing live? [/ QUOTE ] Do I think **I** could? No, I don't. But I also have a SICK expectation live, the games are so much softer. I mean, I'm talking like 4 or 5BB/100h over many thousands of hours. I mean, somebody (a hypothetical somebody) who had a winrate of 10BB/100h online probably can't go on a 1000BB downswing, either. (I mean, I had a winrate of like 3BB/100h over a few hundred thousand hands at 30-60 before my downswing....it would take a SICK winrate to be able to be 'certain' that a 1000BB downswing will never hit you) That said, I do think that there are people who play online and win that could lose 1200BB live, because they just aren't suited for that type of play. There is much more "reading players", the tilt is different, the "boredom" that many online players experience when they play live is enough to thwart many of their A games. Ya know, 6 or 8 tabling, it's tough to go more than a few minutes without playing a hand. But when you are playing live and haven't seen a flop for like 30 minutes, then T8s looks more appealing, as does A5o, threebetting a tight player w/ KJ, etc. These afflictions could easily derail a solid winning online player's A game. I hope this makes sense. Josh
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#49
01-13-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
At the time of, and immedately following the second downswing I would have told you I was playing my A game. This was certainly not the case. My game suffered tremendously from those downers and it took a long time to restore/improve my game. [/ QUOTE ] This is a great point and I really can't see how this isn't true for most people.
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