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What % of the time are we beat here?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
BB ($3.83) UTG ($4.83) MP ($2.07) CO ($2.55) Hero ($2.84) SB ($0.98) Preflop: Hero is Button with , . UTG calls $0.02, MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12</font>, 2 folds</font>, UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, CO folds. Flop: ($0.41) , , [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font> UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.31</font>, UTG calls $0.31, MP folds. Turn: ($1.03) (2 players)</font> UTG checks, Hero bets $0.66</font>, UTG calls $0.66. River: ($2.35) (2 players)</font> Villain bets $.55 Let's go over the hand: PF call: Shows a marginal hand that probably hopes to improve. All pp's, suited aces, suited connectors, possibly connectors Flop call: After the strength shown PF he is definitely going to be raising two pair, the calling either shows that he has a weak king, a jack, or is drawing. Turn call Most villains here now toss their PP's + jacks, and almost all of them will raise a king. This leaves us with draws. River bet Clearly a valuebet. Villain knows we are not folding but is also afraid we might check behind because of the scary river. River card completes almost all draws. My answer: I think at these stakes, hero is beat somewhere between 90 and 100% of the time. Question: It seems to me like, with these odds, folding is out of the question. But, my question is, can an argument be made for folding here? |
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