Calling from the BB with a small pair, playing for set only.

[brimstone1]

This is a theoretical question; I want to work on my poker math, for I believe it will further my understanding of every situation.

By the way, the questions I ask are not rhetorical. Every question mark is a point at which I'm not sure of what I've done, so please feel free to answer/rebuttle/flame.

So, in this crazy world:

3 folds, BTN raises, SB calls, Hero...

Hero holds 22-66 and will play fit-or-fold on the flop.

Hero gets 5:1 on his call, hoping to hit the set 8:1 (%11?) and take down the pot with a c/r to BTN's contiuation bet.

Flop: (6 SB)

Hero hits set (11%)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, SB folds, Hero raises, BTN folds.
-------------------------
+7 SB

Hero misses (89%)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, SB folds, Hero folds.
-------------------------
-1 SB

EV: (7sb * 0.11) - (1sb * 0.89) = 0.77 - 0.89 = -0.12 sb


But of course, this isn't necessarily true.
How would I go about putting percentages to the times where BTN calls our c/r, or SB calls BTN's bet?

So I thought about this for a while, and am going to try to rationalize the numbers I present.

SB hits a pair with XY on the flop ~33%, but some are bottom pairs that he may not want to continue with (although not necessarily true for lower 6-max games, heh), and sometimes he will flop a nice draw that he may want to continue with. Let's say the flop comes 3 6 9 rainbow, SB will hit each of them 11% of the time, won't he? He doesn't like bottom pair, he enjoys the middle pair 50% of the time, and he will certainly call 1sb with the top pair.

So only looking at the times he flops a pair, he won't continue with bottom pair (33%), he wont continue with half of his middle pairs (16.5%), and will call 1 sb with the rest (49.5%). We round up, and call SB's call as 0.5SB.

But, they both fold to our c/r in this vacuum, not because that is what will happen, but because I have no idea how to go on with calculating the times he will continue with a draw, and what BTN's response will actually be (him holding overcards and getting 10:1 including SB's call).

So now, with SB's 0.5sb call, the situation is:
(7.5sb * 0.11) - (1sb * 0.89) = 0.825sb - 0.89sb = -0.065sb

Yay, we're almost breaking even at this point.

Can I comfortably rely on the assumption that the number of times the BTN and SB, or BTN alone will call my check-raise and perhaps pay me off more on the turn and river will offset the number of times I will be outdrawn or already beaten by a higher set to say this line is +EV?

If so, calling with any pair getting 5:1 from the BB against a steal and playing fit-or-fold on the flop can be +EV.
Praise implied odds.