Variance Please Help

Tzen · #1 06-04-2007, 07:46 AM

I was amazed by the variance I had myself as well at the 1/2 Limit game at PokerStars especially since 0,50/1 was easy to beat for me, ofcourse with ups and downs. 1/2 so far breaks even after 17K hands, which also means I need a little more hands before I can really say something about my play. I also already adjusted some small things and this seems to work (was down about 150 BB before). I'm also down to 4 tables, where I played 6 to 8 at 0,50/1, I want to be confident about my play first before I open more tables or move up.

I think the huge variance comes with Limit/FR and a lot of Tight opponents. I also notice it really matters what times you play, since sometimes it's just full of regulars which all seems to break even but you won't find an edge there yourself.

I don't see a lot of people really winning on these limits, I guess most regulars just play 1/2 because they like it and all the better players are either moved up, playing 6 max or moved site. Which means you have a really small edge vs the regulars, who you might beat, but this will come with big variance.

I will check my PokerTracker for stats on you and might see some things. But I don't think I really have a lot of hands to say something other then that I have the same sort of graph.

JaneTheHot · #2 06-04-2007, 08:40 AM

Thank you for your responses. What is a reasonable downswing that I should expect?

Ricks · #3 06-04-2007, 11:33 AM

I have not had more than a 200 BB downswing and I consider myself fortunate. I fully expect to outdo this at some point in the future. There are posts throughout these forums of much larger downswings from very good players.

gobbledygeek · #4 06-04-2007, 11:36 AM

Also, for a better response to particular hands, I would recommend (a) posting only one or maybe two hands per thread (more than that can be a little overwhelming) and (b) cleanup the hand history to a more easily readable form, do it manually if you have to (I don't even bother reading hands in the above format as I find it too hard to read).

GcluelessnoobcurrentlyonthehappysideofvarianceG

matt42s · #5 06-04-2007, 12:26 PM

You can search on money management to find more accurate numbers but I remember reading that a 200BB swing and a couple of 150's in 100k hands is not uncommon. My experience is slightly worse than that because I suck at poker - most of us do.
You shouldn't "expect" a reasonable downswing - treat them all like a learning experience and find your leaks.
Like this one
Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ac Ad]
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
polochips: folds
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8h 5s]
Nexus6mAA: bets $1
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Ah 8h 5s] [6c]
Nexus6mAA: checks
JaneTheHot: bets $2
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $4
JaneTheHot: raises $2 to $6
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $8
Betting is capped

When you get hit with the c/r on the turn - there are 32 ways Nexus has a straight, 36 ways for 2pr and 9 ways for a smaller set. the str8 caps every time, you lose 2bb more than a calldown. A lot of ppl aren't aggressive enough to c/r 2pr on the turn but if Nexus is, he/she will probably calldown & you make 1 more.
This 3bet is -EV

Your PT screenshot shows A9s vpip=53 with pfr 19. I haven't played 1/2 for a long while but maybe you're open limping A9s too often and in the wrong spots (of course only being dealt 51 times is a very small sample, but is it the only hand you're doing it with?)

gobbledygeek · #6 06-04-2007, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ac Ad]
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
polochips: folds
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8h 5s]
Nexus6mAA: bets $1
JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2
Nexus6mAA: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Ah 8h 5s] [6c]
Nexus6mAA: checks
JaneTheHot: bets $2
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $4
JaneTheHot: raises $2 to $6
Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $8
Betting is capped

This 3bet is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this 3bet really bad cuz I'd do it every single time (perhaps only hesitating if the turn had of been a 4 or 9, completing an OESD, but I'd probably 3bet anyways). I find it harder to believe someone is coldcalling preflop and donking the flop with cards that the 6 completes a gutshot for; I'd much more think a smaller set. Besides, even if I am behind I have a 10 outs to catch up.

pjcmt · #7 06-04-2007, 05:18 PM

When posting hands try putting them through a hand converter like the one at flopturnriver.com to make them easier to read. You'll get more feedback on the hands.

pjcmt · #8 06-04-2007, 05:34 PM

If you want people to give you feedback on your hand postings try running it through a hand converter like the one at wwwflopturnriver.com
Here's what you first hand looks like when converted:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero caps, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

pjcmt · #9 06-04-2007, 05:45 PM

Same hand posting with results:

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero caps, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ad Ac (one pair, aces).
CO has Kh Kc (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: CO wins 11.75 BB.

JaneTheHot · #10 06-04-2007, 05:50 PM

For the future posts I will def. use flopturnriver.com in order obtain such information. Thanks.