Steelers - 49ers

[CarlSpackler]

I'm really liking the Steelers at home, -8.5 vs. the 49ers. Pit is the one elite team that has flown way under the radar -- everyone in the preseason was like "will indy repeat?" "the pats are loading up for the super bowl," "can san diego get over the hump?" "the ravens might be the most complete team in the nfl," are just some of the common themes I've heard among the media and fans. Meanwhile there's no mention of the Steelers, who were super bowl champs the year before last and 15-1 the previous season before that.

A lot of things went wrong for Pit last year, most notably Big Ben's injury issues and subpar performance. Well, so far Big Ben looks great, and the team appears rejuvenated under their new head coach. Meanwhile Alex Smith has looked extremely erratic early, and lets not forget this kid is the same age as guys in college like Colt Brennan, and still very green. A trip to Pit against their nasty defense does not appear to be a good spot for him to start playing well. SF's only reliable offense right now is Gore, and I expect Pit to contain him for the most part.

I think the 49ers are quasi-fool's gold right now. They're 2-0, but could of easily lost each of their first 2 games, which were both decided in the final seconds. Granted, SF may be good enough to win the horrendous nfc west, but they are simply not on the Steeler's level talent wise, or statistically. What would the line be if Arizona recovers the fumble in the endzone in week 1, and/or Wilkins makes the game winning fg last week? It would certainly be double digits.

There's a lot more value in the Steelers line than the Indy or SD lines, which are similar matchups, imo. When adjusted for hfa: Indy -9.5, SD -8, Pit -5.5. Realistically, I think the Steelers should be favored by at least 10.5, and probably 11.

Finally, I'm also liking what I hear from squares regarding the matchup. It's mostly "how can the Steelers be favored by 8.5 over a 2-0 team?" which is music to my ears. Also, it doesn't hurt that SF is on the road for the 2nd consecutive week, and this time they have to to fly completely across the country for an early noon game.

Btw, this also qualifies as a wong teaser, although I currently see nothing else available that I could tease this game with.


Fwiw, my ytd nfl record: 2-3-2 on sides/totals, 1-0 wong teasers, -.42 units to date. The only games I posted in the forum were NYJ week 1, and a 3 team wong in week 1. My others which I haven't posted until now were -- week 1: Indy under, Philly, Was; week 2: SF, Det, Chi. But you have no reason to believe I actually made these plays as I could be totally lying, trying to impress everyone here with my 2-2-2 record in my other nfl games played this season.