have a FULL HOUSE, SMALLEST POSSIBLE, 4 bet river?!!!

[Mingdu]

[ QUOTE ]
if i call and by any chance my hand is good i have a good shot at winning that tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad it worked out for you, but this is a pretty bad reason to make a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed ... that reasoning makes for a lot of donkish plays

[vladzhuk]

please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

[Mingdu]

I make donkish plays all the time

However ... "if I call and by any chance MHIG" is a bad reason to make a play ... well, don't admit it. Use math or a sick read as your reason ... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Hope and a prayer is -ev

[ QUOTE ]
please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

[/ QUOTE ]

Your decision should always be based on the $EV of the play. Nothing else should matter. If I'm at the FT of the WSOP and 6 people move all in PF in front of me, I shouldn't call with my 68o just because if I win I will basically have the tourney locked up. I need to analyze the $EV of making the call and make my decision based on that.

So in your scenario, if we determine that one of the guys has a better full house 90% of the time, then the $EV of you calling off your chips would be negative since the pot is not laying you enough for when you win to make up for all the times you lose.

etc. etc. etc.

[vladzhuk]

got it, thank you. makes more and more sense

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
please explain, since in my belief i play MTT to win the most $$$ possible in each one (and winning obv = most), and folding and trying to cash would give me close to no shot at doing so. this is where the difference b/n a cash game and a MTT was to me.

btw. i do make donkish plays, but trying to minimize them slowly

[/ QUOTE ]

Your decision should always be based on the $EV of the play. Nothing else should matter. If I'm at the FT of the WSOP and 6 people move all in PF in front of me, I shouldn't call with my 68o just because if I win I will basically have the tourney locked up. I need to analyze the $EV of making the call and make my decision based on that.

So in your scenario, if we determine that one of the guys has a better full house 90% of the time, then the $EV of you calling off your chips would be negative since the pot is not laying you enough for when you win to make up for all the times you lose.

etc. etc. etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I don't think that the reason OP gave is always necessarily wrong because not all equally +/-cEV spots are equal.

If a similar situation arose and folding would leave you pushbotting but calling left you in a strong position on the bubble, then I think we can/should make a -cEV call.

Also, the exact cEV of this situation, if marginal, cannot be adequately determined. Who really knows, in actual fact, just how many people out there can stack off lighter than the smallest boat after this action? Without knowing whether it's 5% of online players at these buyins, or 70% (and the former figure would surprise me more) we can only roughly estimate the cEV. And, where there is reasonable doubt, err of the side of getting your chips in.

I never mentioned cEV in my post. That was done on purpose.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
I never mentioned cEV in my post. That was done on purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Firm but fair. Nevertheless, I wanted OP to understand that he is on the right lines in that $EV and cEV are not the same and that our decision to call or fold in a marginal and somewhat inestimable situation should take into account other factors.

We can make an EV evaluation in this hand this mathematically but 1) our data is very incomplete 2) it's complicated maths to perform within the timebank.

About the data, guys who've decided to CR always CR nomatter what happens behind and guys who've flopped an OESD and don't bet it over two streets and get action when they river their miracle card, get overexcited. And people who've slowplayed trips don't fold.

Anyway, I don't mind OP's reasoning. If we need to be good say 25% of the time here and depending on how likely based on specific reads and general trends in online play, we decide that we're good anywhere between 15 and 30% here, then we should err on the side of risky accumulation.

[mutiger91]

{deleted first part of this as I didn't read far enough in the thread before responding and this topic has been covered}

The other things that impact my thought process here:

1) It's a low $$$ buy-in, so a lot of people are going to get overzealous with any kind of hand better than TP.

2) Nobody (including hero) showed much interest until the end. If that Q had to play, then the str8 is a real possibility.

3) Even though it sounds like it's after the rebuy period, sometimes the tone in rebuy tournaments is a little more crazy than other MTTs. People tend to bet more aggressively

I've laid down a boat before, so I'm not a call-em down at all costs donk. But I just can't see getting away from this.

[WarDekar]

I've only read the OP, but you gotta call this. It's a freaking $10+R for gawd's sake, people are 4-betting straights, trips, hell there could even be some tard with KK or AA trying to play catch-up here. CCCAAAALLLL

You'd be amazed at what you get shown in these things, I'm never folding a boat in a $10+R (unless there's trips on the board and my boat is like... 22)