How long do I withhold tips? Dealer mistake costs me $1800. (long)

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I see your point but I think you made a typo. Assuming one other opponent the chances of hitting that one card would be 1 in 42 instead of the 1 in 46 I had mistakenly assumed. This takes into account the 3 flop cards, 1 turn card, 2 opponent cards, 2 of my own cards, and the 2 prior burn cards.

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No typo. There are 25 cards in the reshuffled stub and the exposed card is one of them. Actually I did make a mistake it hits 1 in 25 or 4%.