Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

[cero_z]

Hi ocklind,

Interesting and well-thought-out post. Here are my thoughts:

Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind. You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

I'd probably tend to call here with the intention of calling most rivers (blanks for sure, and re-eval on bad-looking cards) if he bets, and betting small if he checks. 3-bet Shoving the turn could also be decent if you were perceived as aggressive (which it doesn't sound like you are).

One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

So to sum up, given your actual range, Qs up is near the bottom, but your turn-betting range should put Qs up near the top IMO.

[ocklind]

ty for the feeback!

cero_z:

[ QUOTE ]
Your plan to only bet hands that have one-pair hands in bad shape seems nitty and fairly bad to me, especially given that you think he'll c-bet the flop with all/nearly all of his range. If he perceives you as this nitty, then it seems like checking QJ would also be in order. But, I question whether he really expects you to check behind with hands like QT, JT, and draws that haven't connected yet 100% of the time. I think it's reasonable (though probably not optimal on this turn card) to be planning to checkraise the turn with an overpair after your flop call indicates that you have a good hand. I can see him checkraising some worse hands (AA, KK, AQ) for value vs. many players.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we bet all hands except TT and maybe JTs we give him a harder time making a good move? I like checking behind with QTs though since we most likely hand the best hand, and have the draw, but if we face a C/R we we won't really like getting it in here, since he will have us crushed.

So what hands do we bet here? KJ and AJ and check behind JTs, QTs, TT to not become to predictable? I thought we wanted to manage some sort of pot control with KJ for example?


[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, if hands with draws are firmly within your range, his checkraise is too small if he has a made hand other than a straight, or even a bluff. He is offering you ~3:1 immediate odds, and there's lots of money left behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misread our stack sizes, since we onlyhave 400 left to put in, and if he C/Rs to 600 we gotta get it in?

[ QUOTE ]
You claim that he knows that hands like JT and QT are not in your range, but I question this claim. It's your post, though, so what can we do? I guess a lot hinges on this read you have that he'd know you wouldn't bet those hands, but generally, I'm more inclined to believe that the small c/r here means he's not strong, rather than that he is and messed up the bet-sizing, or that you're drawing deadish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he assumes I don't bet JTs here to keep the pot small and since I also have the draw, so I am not particualary afriad of giving a free card. He could expect me betting QT here but I still thinks he'd rather just bet his one pair hands then, like AA/KK/AQ and then maybe put in one more bet on a safe river.

[ QUOTE ]
One more comment about checking the turn with AJ, KJ, QT, JT, T9, etc. You can't be reliably checking behind with those hands vs. many good players. This is because you will be giving a big chunk of their range a valuable free card in a fairly big pot. AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, AT, etc. would all love to see the turn go check-check. This isn't a big deal for you with Qs up, but with one pair+draw hands that you'll have far more often, it really hurts, when you can be winning a lot/collecting a nice price most of the time by betting. I agree that if he knows for sure how tightly you'll be betting the turn, then your Qs up fold is reasonable. But, if you just balance your range a bit by betting with most of the above hands, you can gladly bet Qs up and call a raise. This seems best overall, without going through the somewhat arduous math.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good conclsuion, but what hands should I add to my range do you think Like my suggestions above? QT, KJ and AJ?

[john kane]

i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.

[MTBlue]

No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

u cant really assume this :P it would equal some kinda tilt and that was not me impression of him atm

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
i read your reasoning and whilst definitely a good way to go about it personally i think your play is too passive.

i much prefer 3bet here pf, although obv depends on recent history (edit: in fact completely history dependent, as soon as i think a 3bet is worthwhile i'd do it, if ive 3bet him twice in last orbit id call), but still i generally think calling pf sucks vs 13% pfr in utg+1. maybe 3betting trash here and calling JQs is better than folding trash and 3betting JQs, but i just simply dont like calling a pf raiser when your on the button, kills your upper range (QQ+). meaning your reppable range is a lot smaller and his is a lot wider given he has made a standard pf raise, and this is never good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?


[ QUOTE ]

as for turn, i insta shove, but again, as you rightly say it all comes down to ranges, but if your only getting called by better hands if you shove, and only being check-raised with hands that beat top 2, your not playing a mixed aggressive style enough imo. becuase if this is the case, then you are not utilising your tight image to your advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?

[john kane]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

[ QUOTE ]
You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?

[/ QUOTE ]

tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's better to 3-bet him here w/ A3s-ish, and 76s-ish to mix it up. I've watched cts play some at CR and there he said a very clever thing, its better to 3bet the hands that play not so good post flop, like A3 and 76s(that doesnt hit a good flop that often) than a hand that plays better on the flop, for eg QJs. And I also call him with all SCs, all pairs and some KQs, QJs etc, so I think he's gotta have a hard time putting me on a hand. And yes, I can screw with him a lot on the flop when I whiff, bcuz of position.

[ QUOTE ]
tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I forgot to mention that we had no real history. So whats ur play without hist?

[LouisCyphre]

(I like your OP because I think we need more detailed analysis like this in this forum.)

How does villain perceive you? Could he "count" on you betting the turn?
Because villain can't like it if it goes check-check on the turn if he has decent hand. There are players who are more likely to check than to bet here if they have QT/JT/T9/TT/KJ/98/76. Unless he has a straight or a very weak hand he can't feel good about giving a free card.