Big Loss in One Session

[bernie]

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon when you have a 2bb/100 winrate in an agressive game, if you make 4bb/100 (that's easy live, right?) the probability of a 150bb downswing is decreased a lot.

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4bb/100 = about just under 2bbs per hour live(40 hands per hour). It's not that easy. If it were, everyone would be doing it. Especially in LL when the rake can become more of a factor.

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and certainly when the game isn't very aggressive the swings won't be really huge.


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One of the main things that widens your swings is the looseness of the game, not the aggression of the other players. Though it is a factor. The loose games where many are seeing flops will generally have wider swings.

Many times, an aggressive game your swings won't be that big overall.

If you think a roll of 150BBs is sufficient for a BR, you're vastly underestimating the swings of the game. 100BB swings are normal. 200BB don't happen too often, but still very possible.

The longrun is alot longer than people think.

b

[sternroolz]

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I usually quit if I'm down 30 big bets. I wanted to see if I could turn things around. Due to bad luck or bad play or both, I couldn't do it. I'm going back to quitting when I'm down 30.

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WOW. Thats my first buy in at $20-40. Less than 2.5 racks. WOW. Maybe you want to consider not playing at anything but very tight tables.

[daveT]

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

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It depends upon the hours/hands played. While I was running bad and was bored onetime, I kept track of the number of pocket-pairs that did not flop a set. I was up to 17 before I hit a set. It is frustrating when at the same time the guy next to you gets AA/KK/QQ 3 or 4 times that win and you see someone else flop 3 sets in a row and win.

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There's like a 12% chance of that happening, hardly scarce.

The original two statements however are so absurd they are hardly believable.

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Between June and August I didn't flop a single set playing online.

I was playing Stud 8 though.

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Well, I will grant that this is a SLIGHT exageration. This happened at the beginning of this year, between January and March. I did not see Pocket aces until some time in February, and the set wasn't until about the same time. I was playing full time for the first three weeks of January (this downswing started at the end of December, merry f'fn christmas), I couldn't take it any more, took a two week vacation, started full time again and quit LIMIT poker at the end of march. I did a bit of odd work and began playing NL instead.

These other things also happened in January/ February.

I had 3 days in a row that I did not win one single hand.

Had a few sessions where I looked at nothing but crap and folded off my stack.

People knew, and made plenty of comments on how bad I was running, even the dealers began to notice.

Over-all I took a four deviation downswing (my wr was 1.5 BB/hr with a 10BB SD in 2005, playing 9/18, 8/16, 10/30, 15/30 in LA and Vegas). I have heard that some players can take on a two-year downswing, didn't want to learn the hard way.

I really thought what was happening was completely normal for limit, that is why I won't play more than 10 hours a week.

Also, I did not flop a set at all in August this year either, if that sounds out-rageous.

This I DO know is a statistical anomaly:

I hate pocket 8's. When I started playing poker two years ago, I flopped 4 full houses in two days, and lost each time. To this day, I have only won one pot with 88.

This is about ready to be sent to BBV, I know. I wish that this all happend OL, so I could prove it, but I only play live. I guess you will have to take my word for it.

[GiantBuddha]

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I guess you will have to take my word for it.

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I will. And I feel bad for you. I've had bad runs of cards, but none quite like that, so I'm going back to my original assessment of "absurdly brutal". Seriously, that sucks. But... fortunately for the rest of us, a run that bad is rare. To put that forth as a common run of bad luck is selling yourself short.

Out of curiousity, did you ever start to doubt your own ability? Or was the bad run just so obvious you couldn't mistake it for anything other than what it was?

[daveT]

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I guess you will have to take my word for it.

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I will. And I feel bad for you. I've had bad runs of cards, but none quite like that, so I'm going back to my original assessment of "absurdly brutal". Seriously, that sucks. But... fortunately for the rest of us, a run that bad is rare. To put that forth as a common run of bad luck is selling yourself short.

Out of curiousity, did you ever start to doubt your own ability? Or was the bad run just so obvious you couldn't mistake it for anything other than what it was?

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LOL

Of coarse, I always doubt my ability. I have quit poker more than once fed up with the game and myself (especially when I make a bad lay-down, raise, AI push, passive play, etc). Sure that these are all mistakes we make, but I always wish for the perfect session, so I am never satisfied with myself.

As for the downswing, I don't know, I guess it could have been worse. I guess that means it'll never happen again?