Big Loss in One Session

[sternroolz]

2006-11-17 Hawaiian Gardens Casino Casino Hold 'Em 3h 0m
-760.00 -8.44 -76.00
2006-11-03 Hawaiian Gardens Casino Casino Hold 'Em 5h 0m
-1340.00 -8.93 -77.01

$9024.00
Win Rate: $14.69/hr Time played: 614h 10m

So whatever, it happens ALL the time. 50 BB.....3 racks at a 3-6 chip game is so common. The above results are past 2 years for me. I've had 2 downswings over 150BB over several sessions. It happens.

It's good that you are asking questions, and its good that you didn't tilt, but you are in for a lot of difficulty if you can't accept the swings that are inherrent in this game.

[Rbower]

Thanks for your comment. I'm new to poker and that's why I'm asking if these kinds of swings are normal. Judging from the responses losing 50 BB is not an abnormal swing.

[GiantBuddha]

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The bigger the win rate comes with a higher variance level. Which also comes with aggression. It took me awhile to actually grasp that.

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We're talking about two different things here. Increasing your winrate does not increase your variance. If your winrate increases due to a more aggressive strategy, yes, your variance will naturally increase. So I'm not disagreeing with that. But I was talking about having a larger edge due to being able to read your opponents better. I believe this is much easier in live games, unless you have little to no skill at reading your opponents and/or are extremely readable yourself. Personally, I find it much easier to manipulate my opponents, avoid paying off with a second best hand, and value bet with a marginal hand that I know is good. Overall, this is a much lower variance strategy, as everything is based on a stronger read. I also find people raise you with air less in live games than they do online. Some people get embarassed by 'getting caught'. It's the same reason people talk more crap online. People get upset in live games, but not quite the same way.

[tom10167]

I've lost 1BB/hand for 80 hands straight before.

[SA125]

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Judging from the responses losing 50 BB is not an abnormal swing.

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When I'm over 30 BB's, I figure I'm running bad and playing bad and get up. That's just me. I don't think I've ever lost 50 BB's in a session. 20 plenty of times and 30 more than a few times.

[Rbower]

I usually quit if I'm down 30 big bets. I wanted to see if I could turn things around. Due to bad luck or bad play or both, I couldn't do it. I'm going back to quitting when I'm down 30.

[Hielko]

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So you've won $110 in seven sessions at a $8-16 game. Sounds like a break even player to me.

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Not enough info for this evaluation. 7 sessions doesn't mean squat. You can easily go 4-6 months and break even, even though you are still actually beating the game.(just convert your hours in a cardroom times the hand per hour(about 40). Then compare that to the 40k hands online breakeven streaks that many, including myself(even live), have experienced. It helps put it in perspective.)

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. When you are playing high-stakes holdem online with a 1bb/100 edge (or perhaps even smaller) you can have huge swings and break even stretches. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible. Another thing is that you don't need a bankroll as big as often is adviced on these boards. Your winrate in bb/100 can be 5+ when playing live, so a 300BB bankroll isn't needed. When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll (depends a bit on play style aka the variance).

[HOWMANY]

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Not see pocket aces for two months.

Not flop a set for a month and a half.


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Really? That's either absurdly brutal or somewhat of an exaggeration.

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It depends upon the hours/hands played. While I was running bad and was bored onetime, I kept track of the number of pocket-pairs that did not flop a set. I was up to 17 before I hit a set. It is frustrating when at the same time the guy next to you gets AA/KK/QQ 3 or 4 times that win and you see someone else flop 3 sets in a row and win.

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There's like a 12% chance of that happening, hardly scarce.

The original two statements however are so absurd they are hardly believable.

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Between June and August I didn't flop a single set playing online.

I was playing Stud 8 though.

[bernie]

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible.

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You realize we're talking about a limit game, right?

Actually, the swings are a bit bigger in looser games like this. And yes, a long breakeven period is very possible.

7 sessions is nothing to base anything on.

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When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon on LL tables. Your RoR is much higher than 1%.

b

[Hielko]

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You should consider that the level of play at these small stakes live games is very low. This gives a good player a huge edge, making large breakeven stretches (counted in number of hands) almost impossible. If you are a solid player a winrate of 1 or 2 bb/hour is certainly possible in a low stakes live limit game. If you have a winrate like that, a long breakeven period is almost impossible.

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You realize we're talking about a limit game, right?

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Yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Actually, the swings are a bit bigger in looser games like this. And yes, a long breakeven period is very possible.

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The edge of a good player is also a lot bigger, and certainly when the game isn't very aggressive the swings won't be really huge.

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7 sessions is nothing to base anything on.

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True [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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When you earn 2BB/hour you have a +/- 1% risk of ruin on a 150BB bankroll

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon on LL tables. Your RoR is much higher than 1%.

b

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150BB downswings aren't uncommon when you have a 2bb/100 winrate in an agressive game, if you make 4bb/100 (that's easy live, right?) the probability of a 150bb downswing is decreased a lot. The same thing applies for 50bb swings.