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advice pls
A buddy of mine and I each pick 5 games per week. We can pretty much make any bet that can be made with a sportsbook (parlays, over\unders, spreads, teasers, moneylines, props, etc…)
I am terrible at picking games and I usually end up picking with my favorite teams or teams I “feel” should cover. I use almost zero trend history or in depth analysis (nor am I looking to) other than tid bits I pick up on sports talk radio or ESPN. For example, I am thinking about these picks this week and my "analysis" of why I am considering them VA Tech -17 vs UNC UNC is just plain awful Bama +2 vs FSU Bama lost a nailbiter this week and should come back strong. Louisville -8 vs. NCSU NCSU is awful. tOSU -22 vs Minn Not sure why, but I think they cover. Houston Texans -3 vs Atlanta Falcons Houston is strong to very strong and ATL lost to a bad Carolina team yesterday. Chi Bears -3 vs Det Lions Again, not sure why but I think Chi wins this easily. NY Jets -2 vs Buf Bills Jets are average to below average, but the Bills are awful. Indy Colts -9.5 vs Den Broncos Denver won the first two games with last second FGs and got smoked by a bad Jax team who got run over by Tenn two weeks ago. I rarely will parlay any games and usually end up taking favorites and giving the points. He will parlay his football picks nearly 100% of the time and usually makes 3 2 team parlays (which pays 2.6:1) and 2 3 team parlays (which pays 6:1). Sometimes using the same games on different parlays. I am 77-104-4 (-23.91 units) and he is 81-97-7 (-11.35 units). I lost most of mine during MLB picking over\unders and money lines (thanks Braves). I’m not looking for input on the games I listed above (although it’s okay). I’m more looking for everyone’s input on my optimal strategy going forward with making exactly 5 picks per week. |
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