NL200 - flop a combo draw

[wiggs73]

I usually play higher than 1/2 so I have no idea who villain is. I have him at 20/13 with a total aggression factor of 1.5 but a flop aggression factor of 7. This is only over 69 hands... just this session.

We haven't played any big pots together. The only big pot I've seen him play, he 3bet KK and called a 4bet shove with it preflop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($317)
Button ($111.50)
SB ($360.75)
BB ($180)
UTG ($254.10)
Hero ($233.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, CO calls $7, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($22) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $52</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>


I guess a shove can't be bad, but I wonder what part of his range is a better flush draw that calls?

So maybe if the flop were
5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
a shove would be better?


Also, as long as I'm ranting on and on about what might be an easy decision, if we decide to raise, which do you guys think rates better between shoving and 3betting to the $145-$160 range. They're effectively the same bet but I wonder if they would be perceived any differently by villain and if so, then how would he look at them vs. one another.

[Nielsio]

I prefer a call here because our outs are reasonably hidden, I don't think we have any FE, and I think we're getting it in behind if we do. However we are OOP, which is kinda nasty.

Folding also seems viable.


I would advocate a fold preflop btw.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

pretty sure preflop is fine sparingly?

my first response was to just insta-shove... but you have raised some interesting points, im interested to find how this thread plays out.

[tarheeljks]

i think i prefer a call b/c his flop af is so high that think our fe is very low.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
his flop af is so high that think our fe is very low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say what?

I would think if anything we would have more FE because his raising range is relatively wide.

Of course we probably shouldn't read too much into his AF anyway over just 70 hands... this pretty much means he has c-bet some. But just speaking in general...

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
his flop af is so high that think our fe is very low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Say what?

I would think if anything we would have more FE because his raising range is relatively wide.

Of course we probably shouldn't read too much into his AF anyway over just 70 hands... this pretty much means he has c-bet some. But just speaking in general...

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's only 70 hands then whatever. my thought process was that if it's that high over an adequate sample he's willing to get into a raising war and felt.

[Mike MacIntosh]

A ruff idea of your equity against his calling range.

Hand 0: 37.899% 37.90% 00.00% 9380 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 62.101% 62.10% 00.00% 15370 0.00 { 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

Lets assume we are a 2 to 1 dog when called.

GRUNCH METHOD

+266 -210 -210 +90 +90

We need villain to fold roughly 40% of the time for this to be 0EV.

That number seems to be unrealistic since villain has a monster most of the time here. Therefor I fold like a little girl.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
A ruff idea of your equity against his calling range.

Hand 0: 37.899% 37.90% 00.00% 9380 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 62.101% 62.10% 00.00% 15370 0.00 { 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

Lets assume we are a 2 to 1 dog when called.

GRUNCH METHOD

+266 -210 -210 +90 +90

We need villain to fold roughly 40% of the time for this to be 0EV.

That number seems to be unrealistic since villain has a monster most of the time here. Therefor I fold like a little girl.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain the math here? i can do it slowly with excel, but i'd like to see this fancy grunch method.

[schwza]

i would jam here. he will sometimes fold a marginal flush draw, i think. and if you do get ai vs a bigger flush draw, you're not totally hosed unless he has JsXs. villain will also fold Jx sometimes, and sometimes he will be screwing around and have air or second pair or whatever, even though it is a 3 way pot.

as for the question of pushing vs making an obviously pc'ing raise, i dunno. i'd be surprised if it mattered that much, but if someone had some huge datamined sample or something i'd be curious to see it.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
i would jam here. he will sometimes fold a marginal flush draw, i think. and if you do get ai vs a bigger flush draw, you're not totally hosed unless he has JsXs. villain will also fold Jx sometimes, and sometimes he will be screwing around and have air or second pair or whatever, even though it is a 3 way pot.

as for the question of pushing vs making an obviously pc'ing raise, i dunno. i'd be surprised if it mattered that much, but if someone had some huge datamined sample or something i'd be curious to see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, he folds Jx sometimes, but he rarely has Jx, or if he has Jx, and decided to raise with it, he probably wasn't taking a raise/fold line, cause no one ever does that with top pair.

If you push and he folds, it's probably something like a higher flush draw or pure snow.

So, as Mike pointed out, he needs to be on a higher flush draw (but not the NFD because that often calls) or snow &gt; 40% of the time.

That's very wishful thinking.