Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Medium Stakes Limit

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-08-2007, 05:13 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default I dare to ask a preflop question

I was reading the discussion in this post and the discussion about 4-betting preflop with QQ, and it reminded me of something that came up the last time I was playing 15/30 that is specific to the 5-bet cap rule.

Bellagio 15/30

An early position player open-raises, there are three coldcallers, and I 3-bet QQ from one of the blind positions. The original raiser 4-bets and it's called all the way back around to me. I capped it "for value" against 4 players.

This is a spot where I wonder whether I really have that much value to cap it being OOP against 4 players, one of which potentially holds an overpair (giving the 4-bettor AK/AA/KK plus an occasional JTs or other multiway hand that he's getting frisky with).
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:10 PM
Abbaddabba Abbaddabba is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 827
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:39 PM
NinaWilliams NinaWilliams is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Broken-hearted, Battle-scarred
Posts: 2,008
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.


main factor to consider: equity edge or not

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote equity edge.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-08-2007, 06:54 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Proud to list Stanford in Loc
Posts: 1,619
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

AKo/JJ/AQs is closer.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:02 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
just calling has hardly any influence over how the hand will play postflop in a 5 way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered this, but I don't think it's true.

If I cap preflop and the flop is J-high, I'm leading out. But if I just call the 4-bet, I don't think I would. Or maybe I should?
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:12 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of your equation makes me wonder. Would you auto-cap QQ in a 4-handed pot with the same action? 3-handed? Heads up?

The hand count isn't *that* favorable. 16-12 is about about 57-43, and I'm a huge dog (with bad RIO flopping an overpair) against AA/KK and a small favorite against AK. Considering preflop equity against those hands HU,

20% against 12 hands = 2.4 wins
50% against 16 hands = 8 wins

So 10.4 wins out of 28 hands is hovering near 37% equity. The extra players in the pot still have *some* equity, and when I have the best hand, they're usually taking it from me and my 8 wins. So in a 3-handed pot it seems like I'm coming close to break-even and so this does not become an auto-cap anymore. Does this analysis seem correct?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:45 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 3,700
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

Without trying a stove, I'd think about what kind of boards are likely to result in you being a winner. First you have the times when your QQ is the highest overpair and it manages to hold up. Then you have the times where you manage to back into a four card flush or straight that is good. Finally you have the times when you spike a third Q (about 20% of the time) and your hand holds up. You'll lose with your sets fairly often when they don't fill up and someone makes a straight or flush. Even so, I'd imagine your equity in this spot is 25% or so, maybe as high as 30% if the cold-callers are willing to play absolute junk in this spot.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-08-2007, 07:59 PM
ProfessorBen ProfessorBen is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Proud to list Stanford in Loc
Posts: 1,619
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

Liberal: (Wide range for coldcallers, Villain 4-bets JJ+, AK, AQs)

---
5,339,631 games 18.344 secs 291,083 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.448% 28.98% 01.60% 1547484 85631.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 31.502% 30.70% 02.02% 1639020 108039.75 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 13.024% 12.87% 00.66% 687219 35090.58 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 3: 13.010% 12.86% 00.65% 686681 34855.42 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 4: 13.015% 12.87% 00.65% 687000 34812.25 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }


---

Conservative: (Tighter range for coldcallers, Villain 3-bets KK+, AK)
---
5,752,745 games 10.031 secs 573,496 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.073% 29.74% 00.18% 1711003 10168.27 { QQ }
Hand 1: 37.394% 38.79% 01.07% 2231254 61417.18 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 11.516% 11.42% 00.85% 656988 49056.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 3: 11.509% 11.42% 00.85% 656794 48856.52 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 4: 11.507% 11.41% 00.85% 656557 48961.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-08-2007, 08:09 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Henderson, NV
Posts: 8,076
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]
How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't use stove, but as much as possible, I try to break down situations in my head to strengthen my intuition and to practice making quick and accurate estimates.

I find it rather amusing that the difference between the two situations is less than 2% (in terms of hero's equity) and that the brute force computation seems to suggest that the cutoff of an auto-cap is likely right around 2 villains, which is where the estimate found it to be.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-08-2007, 08:16 PM
Chris Daddy Cool Chris Daddy Cool is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Fire. Death. Explostion.
Posts: 8,654
Default Re: I dare to ask a preflop question

[ QUOTE ]

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

i have over 8k posts and i've never used pokerstove once in my life.

anyways, you guys seem to be underestimating just how nitty vegas players are so i wouldn't really mind not capping here, but i would almost always in this spot for the reasons sweetjazz gave though i'm not nearly as optimistic about how often we will actually have the best hand and still have the best hand at the end unimproved.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.