turn play in SB defence vs LAG

[yourface]

villain is a big time LAG. his ATSB is 70%+ over the time I've been playing with him (<90 hands)

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) yourface is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">yourface 3-bets</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">yourface bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, yourface calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5BB, 2 players)

[frenchpignouf]

The pot is 5.5 BB on the turn. We need 6 clean outs. An ace not clean because he can have easily AS9 As10 or two pair. A 6 is an out if he has not a J, and 6h can give a flush. So we don't have 6 clean outs, maybe 5 with reverse implied odds.

We can peel IMO, if we have a good chance to be ahead at this point. If he had an oesd on the flop he has now at least a pair of 8. He can have a FD but it's not too likely because we have an ace of heart. Maybe KQ is in his range. What is his AF?

[midnightpulp]

Even against a Lag, that's a bad turn card. If he raised you on a straight draw, he got there or paired up.

I think I would have to fold here and wait for a better spot to SD.

[Bruce D]

Isn't a 70% ATSB like saying he is 70/70 in the CO or on the BTN?

His range is so wide here. I can't stove it, but aren't we looking at crap as low as T5s, T7o, 96s, J4s, Q4s, any ace, any king?

[Oink]

I fold.

- You straight outs are often dominated.
- Your 6 outs are often no good
- He will bet the river with busted draws and thus rarely give a free SD with a worse hand.

[sharpie]

I would be tempted to call during play, but I agree with others it's a fold.

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]

His range is so wide here. I can't stove it, but aren't we looking at crap as low as T5s, T7o, 96s, J4s, Q4s, any ace, any king?

[/ QUOTE ]
Board: 9s Th 4h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.883% { Ah6s }
Hand 1: 64.117% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

[sharpie]

From the description it doesn't sound like he raises the flop and barrels off with any two he raised PF.

[disjunction]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

His range is so wide here. I can't stove it, but aren't we looking at crap as low as T5s, T7o, 96s, J4s, Q4s, any ace, any king?

[/ QUOTE ]
Board: 9s Th 4h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.883% { Ah6s }
Hand 1: 64.117% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

[/ QUOTE ]

That looks about right. Without Stove handy, I look at these situations as being almost against 2 random cards. With 3 to a straight on the board, I'm not doing so well against 2 random cards. Random cards have a pair half the time and a 14-out draw the rest, or even an ace for chop-chop. There aren't many RANDOM hands we're way ahead of, so if he has any range at all things will get worse.

If he bets twice you'd need 2 bets to win 7. Hard to imagine you have that equity. You gave yourself a chance to win the hand and you already put yourself in a +EV situation, this is a safe fold.