Flop Top Set - Against Definate Nut Str8/s - Anaylsis of my Play

[JanelleBB7]

So I didn't have time to do all the calculations in play and I was sitting there thinking hard whether I should call the shove on the flop by the other two players. There was no doubt at all in my mind that one if not both had the nut straight. I was positive and if only one had shoved I would have folded.... but the fact that there were 2 players in the pot sweetened the pot so much that I wondered if it was worth it to call the shove here and possibly triple up by pairing the board... I was very concerned that some of my outs to pair the board would not be there especially with the two callers, so I went on a hunch and shoved anyway and did the calculations afterwards. Can you guys check my logic and tell me if you would have done the same?

Pot Limit Omaha Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $24.50
BB: $25.90
UTG: $16.70
UTG+1: $21.75
Janellebb7 (MP1): $22.75
MP2: $20.70
CO: $25.25
BTN: $58.55

Preflop: Janellebb7 is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
2 folds, Janellebb7 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, <font color="red">SB raises to $1.25</font>, BB folds, Janellebb7 calls $1.00, MP2 calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00

I think my decision not to re-raise here is pretty clear because although I have aces I don't have suited aces or any real str8 draws with this hand, so I just wanted to see if magic hit the flop.

Flop: ($5.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.00</font>, Janellebb7 calls $2.00, MP2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $13.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $23.25</font>, Janellebb7 calls all-in for $19.50, BTN calls $10.25

** I was sitting there thinking and re-thinking and was very unsure, but I had the previous night been in their situation with the nut straight against a person with the top set of aces and they drew out on me. They didn't have another player in on the deal either, so I thought heck with it let's do the math afterwards. I am sure Buzz will know the answer.

Turn: ($73.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players - 2 All-In)

River: ($73.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $73.25 ($3 Rake)

SB had 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a straight, Ten to Ace) and LOST (-$22.75)
BTN had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a straight, Ten to Ace) and LOST (-$22.75)
Janellebb7 had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Aces full of Tens) and WON (+$44.00)

So as I suspected not only did one have the str8 but both... my inital thought was one of them had the trip queens and the other the str8... which meant that to pair the board I would have less outs... so this how how I thought the outs were...

Q: 1, K: 3, A: 1, T: 3, X=3 total of 11 outs? So I would need the following pot odds = 1 to 3.09 correct?

I was getting 1 to 3.76 to call when the shove took place, so it was a +EV decision... correct? Anyone disagree?

I also ran this on Propoker tools first time I have used it and this were the results:

Omaha Hi Simulation
666 trials (Exhaustive)
board: QdThAc
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Ad2c8hAs 35.59% 237 0
KsJd4cQh 31.16% 1 413
5cKcKhJs 33.26% 15 413

Thanks again for all your help... I think I am getting there on calculating odds, but I just have a hard time doing it quickly in the middle of a game, but if I analyze my plays afterwards, I think I will have a better understanding what to do when faced with these situations.

[Jude the Apostle]

I think the call is standard; not sure about the way you calculate outs why 1Q 3K?

[Elrazor]

Love it! your thought process through the whole hand is spot on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. the only thing to remember is its generally bad to draw to middle/bottom set on a board like this, but im sure your analysis told you that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

also dont keep thinking to yourself you have to do exact math on the spot in Omaha - i certainly never do. its enough that you run the simulations afterwards and ask advice to find the correct play in these kind of standard spots, and remember it for future reference [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JanelleBB7]

[ QUOTE ]
Love it! your thought process through the whole hand is spot on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. the only thing to remember is its generally bad to draw to middle/bottom set on a board like this, but im sure your analysis told you that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the compliment. I lack a certain amount of confidence in my play which I am working on. I didn't analyze the mid sets but I assumed that that would not be a good idea just based off the fact this is such a close call in and of itself.

[ QUOTE ]
also dont keep thinking to yourself you have to do exact math on the spot in Omaha - i certainly never do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to know I'm not the only one... but yeah I know I need to be able to do this but it is hard for me to do at this stage so I am just trying to memorize situations.

[ QUOTE ]
its enough that you run the simulations afterwards and ask advice to find the correct play in these kind of standard spots, and remember it for future reference [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup now I know exactly what to do. Thanks for your helpful advice not just on this post but on all others I have found the advice you give extremely helpful.

To Jude - I know those weren't the ACTUAL outs they were the ones I thought I had before I saw the hands at showdown.

[DonCologne]

[ QUOTE ]


So as I suspected not only did one have the str8 but both... my inital thought was one of them had the trip queens and the other the str8... which meant that to pair the board I would have less outs... so this how how I thought the outs were...

Q: 1, K: 3, A: 1, T: 3, X=3 total of 11 outs? So I would need the following pot odds = 1 to 3.09 correct?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you think one opponent has KJ** and the other QQ** it is an easy fold.

Your outs are 1xAce and 3xTens for the turn card and 1xAce, 3xTens + 3x the turn card for the river card. The remaining queen is no out, because it will give your opponent quads.

Why you count the king? You must use two of your hole cards and its impossible for you to get a straight to split the pot. Even then you can not count the kings full.

So with 4 outs for the turn and 7 outs for the river your equity is not high enough, even with the dead money, to call here, if you think one has QQ**.

Your equity against QQ** and KJ** is only 24,11% and you need an equity of 27,96% to call +EV.

So how many times must both opponents have KJ** that you can call +EV? (Lets make the assumption that villains hold both KJ** or one KJ** and the other QQ)

equity against both KJ** = 36,52%
equity against one KJ** the other QQ** = 24,11%

So how many times must bith hold KJ**?

36,52% * x + (1-x) * 24,11% = 27,96%
x = 31,02%

So sometimes one of them will call or push with less than KJ** or QQ** so I think if both holds KJ** in 30% of the time a call is +-EV.

[Parlay Slow]

standard

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your helpful advice not just on this post but on all others I have found the advice you give extremely helpful.

[/ QUOTE ]

ah thats good of you to say, its nice to know at least 1 person thinks my advice is useful! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[gordo16]

Considering how many limpers there were before the pre-flop raise, I really think that you should put a re-raise in with AAxx preflop. However, from your posts, your play seems to be pretty nitty and conservative, so maybe scratch that until you expand your play to re-raising a wider range of hands pre-flop. As others have said, don't worry so much about always making the perfect math calculations every hand. With 2 players in with you, your call is absolutely standard and a good one. Keep up the good work and alaysis of the game.

[JanelleBB7]

Okay Don you are right about the Q &amp; K's not being outs. Man I feel like an idiot lol I don't know why I was counting the k's as outs.. I really had just 7 outs... but when I simulated this through propoker tools it gave me a higher percentage to win the pot.. so I am sure I am missing something here. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

** ahh I see now that the reason why propoker tools says that I had a higher EV here is because this is calculating without the Qs being an issue.. so I ended up making a good call but not based of thinking that the other player had q's... it was a better decision to make if both have a str8.

[JanelleBB7]

Thanks Gordo.. Yeah the reason i didn't raise these aces is only because they were not suited and no str8 connectors in there really to speak of and also every time I raise with aces lol everyone calls so it doesn't seem to isolate that many people out of the pot.

Its good to know I don't have to know how to calculate everything out but it seems like everyone here agrees this play is standard except for Don... did anyone change their mind after Don's post because now I am starting to think it was possibly a bad move. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]