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Old 11-06-2007, 11:06 AM
Nairb Nairb is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: KnoxVegas
Posts: 407
Default Story of Variance and Tilt

One of the things I have had a hard time with in MTT is variance and how to not tilt when that inevitable bad beat comes along. But what about 2, 3 or even 5 bad beats back to back that make you question, "What am I doing wrong?"

I am primarily a small stakes online player. I play 20 to 30 5 to 20 table MTT SNG on Stars weekly and have run around a 15% ROI over last 700 or so, generally profiting 200 to 300 dollars per week for my efforts. I play mainly for the competition moreso than the money as I recognize though I am not a beginner per sae I still have a lot to learn. Part of learning is sharing ones own experiences that may help another avoid the same errors.

I had been on a hot streak and profited over $500 net in two days and felt like I could not be beaten, finising ITM in 4 straight $12 180 turbos with one first place finish, and then everything goes wrong.

Last night I played in 6 tourneys and got knocked out with 6 bad beats in a row. First in a $12 180 I got it all in against that wonderful player that raised to 90, 3xbb in second level and I look down at AKs and promptly reraise to 300. Then UTG pushes, I call and he shows 4 6 sooted. YOu know the rest he made 2 pair on the turn and river to knock me out in 162nd place. That was followed by losing with KK vs 89 in an all in confrontation, QQ vs JJ, Flopped nut straight only to have my opponent river a full house after pushing over the top of my re-raise with a pair of deuces and, you guessed it he made a set on the turn and the board paired on the river.

When I first started playing I would have gone crazy, blaming pokerstars, reading the crazy "online poker is rigged" posts and saying, wow they may have a point. Now I get up, turn my laptop and realize it may not be my night but smile knowing the fish that make bad calls are not really gone like many say.

I guess my point is to maybe help someone starting to play this game that variance is a very normal part of the game and tha difference for me now vs when I first started playing is knowing when to just walk away from it for the day or until the emotions from taking several horrendous beats in a row have worn off. Bottom line is even though I lost those tourneys I would play every one of the hands the same as a +ev play is always +ev regardless of the outcome of the hand.

So when you have one of those nights like we all have, like I had last night when you just cannot seem to win even when you dominate your opponent when the money goes in, remember to take a deep breath and walk away when you need to. Regroup, read a chapter or two of your favorite book( I have HOH I II and III as my bathroom reading material) and remember that a hand well played is still a hand well played regardless of the outcome and +ev moves will always net you profit over time even with the inherent variance and the tilt that goes along with it. If at any time you feel a beat is keeping you from playing strong, patient +ev poker it is time to take a break and regroup.
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