6.50: JJ, bubble, good villain leaves 180 behind & got called

[justatrey]

Villain is very strong reg on sharkscope (on multiple leaderboards), not sure why he dropped down to a 6.50. I've never ran into this play before, but the more I think about it I think it may be more +EV than just pushing.Also curious if anyone folds JJ here:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t1780)
Button (t5290)
SB (t4115)
Hero (t2315)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t5240</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t1665 (All-In), UTG folds.

[checkmate36]

Interesting hand.

I have trouble for some reason loading hands manually into wiz so maybe my info needs correction. Im getting a push with hero's JJ.

Im looking forward to following the discussion on this one.

[justatrey]

Can wiz answer this? If so, I think it needs to know that villain folds 100% if I call and calls 100% if I fold. He had made this type of almost-allin raise a few hands before so I KNEW it was intentional and that he was folding if I called. All I know is that SNGPT can't take that type of thing into consideration.

[Finnisher]

Ya, wiz can do this. This depends on both of their ranges a lot. But I'd click sit out next hand and then shove.

[justatrey]

Not sure what you mean about sitting out and then shoving.

Button was something like 20/5, so I thought his range was kinda wide (maybe A8+, KT+, QJ+, 44+)

What does a good player make this almost-allin play with? My guess are hands that are strong enough to push with (obv really wide with only 3BBs), but better to get away from if 2 others get all in first. Maybe weaker aces or small pairs?

[cougar62]

(Your call's fine btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). He has to figure you to have a slight edge vs. the big stack, if anything because calling ranges are tighter than shoving ranges. But even if he thinks it's 50/50, this means 50% he's done anyway, and 50% of the time he finishes third.

But, villian must have had pretty much trash, but had to shove with it (or felt he had to), and left himself a backdoor that gave him a roughly 50/50 chance of cashing, while still offering the possiblility of taking down the blinds. So either a, he takes down the blinds (small chance), b, he gets into a showdown heads up, which he would probably take given his equity right now, or c, he uses his backdoor to give him a roughly 50/50 shot at the money. Sound about right?

[BradleyT]

OK let's say he has a hand like 66. It doesn't matter too much what big stacks range is - if your range is higher pairs than the first pushers (duh..your range should be supertight here) then the original pusher is only 18% to win.

When he folds he makes the money between 20% and 80% when you confront the big stack. It would take a bit of ICM work to figure out if it's a good play though.

Edit to add - in theory it seems like an awesome play. There was a thread a while back similar to this one - maybe someone remembers the link to it.

[justatrey]

[ QUOTE ]
(Your call's fine btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). He has to figure you to have a slight edge vs. the big stack, if anything because calling ranges are tighter than shoving ranges. But even if he thinks it's 50/50, this means 50% he's done anyway, and 50% of the time he finishes third.

But, villian must have had pretty much trash, but had to shove with it (or felt he had to), and left himself a backdoor that gave him a roughly 50/50 chance of cashing, while still offering the possiblility of taking down the blinds. So either a, he takes down the blinds (small chance), b, he gets into a showdown heads up, which he would probably take given his equity right now, or c, he uses his backdoor to give him a roughly 50/50 shot at the money. Sound about right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense, thanks for spelling out the possible outcomes. Maybe this play is more common than I know, but I was impressed by it at the time. In game I would shove hands like A7 in his spot but if two players get all in in front of you, your almost definitely dominated badly and in need of the "backdoor". The backdoor might only come into play once in a while, but so long as he's not doing it with hands that are too strong to fold, I don't see how it can hurt.

[Finnisher]

Well if you win the hand, you're sitting out in the SB and BB (shortie) will win the next hand without a showdown if the other 2 players fold. I don't know if that would work but it makes things more interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If I'm bored I do this raise with every hand I'd shove. Your calling range is a lot smaller than if UTG had just shoved and button overshoved. I don't know if UTG should do this or if he's actually hurting himself. But maybe this is a weakish hand.

Button is probably a small favorite against UTG but you're maybe 65% against button. SNGWiz says folding is worth about 20% (55-45 for button) and winning (utg folds) is worth 38%, which means you have to be 53%+ against button's range. JJ is good enough against ranges where button would be 55-45 against UTG.

If button is really loose you have to call, first of all you're way ahead of button and by calling you block UTG's chance of taking a good spot. Actually, it's probably an easy call if you think button isn't really tight (something like 99, AQ). If button is tight there are ranges for UTG that would make us call but if button is loose there is no range for UTG (other than AA) that would make us fold. I hope that's right.

[justatrey]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if you win the hand, you're sitting out in the SB and BB (shortie) will win the next hand without a showdown if the other 2 players fold. I don't know if that would work but it makes things more interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If I'm bored I do this raise with every hand I'd shove. Your calling range is a lot smaller than if UTG had just shoved and button overshoved. I don't know if UTG should do this or if he's actually hurting himself. But maybe this is a weakish hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

lol, never heard of sitting out to preserve bubble, but it sounds like it could work [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I thought UTG had to be hurting himself too (folding when getting like 40:1 or something ridiculous is usually bad), but then I sharkscoped him and saw that he obviously knows what he's doing (up like 30K over 10k sngs).

FWIW button had AT, and my JJ held up but if UTG had something like A7 or 66 then I think he made a good play.