NL CASH 2 pair ever good here?

[Kassu]

Just sat down. He seemed quite agressive preflop.

NL $1/$2 Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, October 09, 21:53:53 GMT 2007
Table Madrid 2-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 2
Seat 1: thanks4cash ( $214 )
Seat 2: Volvic2 ( $447.98 )
thanks4cash posts small blind [$1]
Volvic2 posts big blind [$2]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to thanks4cash [ K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
thanks4cash raises to [$6]
Volvic2 calls [$4]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
Volvic2 checks
thanks4cash bets [$12]
Volvic2 calls [$12]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
Volvic2 checks
thanks4cash bets [$36]
Volvic2 calls [$36]
** Dealing River ** [ 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
<font color="red">Volvic2 bets [$90]</font>

[Teph]

Um, yes.

[holdme]

ldo

[ILOVEGRIMSTARR]

Snap call.

[abcjnich]

I call, but it's not that great of a situation. People sometimes do this with random [censored], 9T (dunno why, but they do), 89

[xSCWx]

You need to win this like 1/3 of the time, definite call.

[MasterLJ]

I think you are barely ahead here enough to call, but I call.

I think 87 would be a fold.

[dpdawson]

I think you have to call. With the way this hand played out, it looks like you have no idea where you are, but lets think about it for a second.

Hands you are scared of:
65, JT, 77, 88, K9, KK, and any spade flush (those with 8 of spades are most likely)

Hands you are not scared of:
87, 98, T9, Kx (x is anything but 9) (this hand turned into a bluff on the river), and everything else (I really have no idea what hands opponent might show up with here... very read dependent)

If the only read you have is that Villain is aggressive, I find that aggressive players are more likely to bet scare cards until you catch them (and sometimes even after), so that is one factor in favor of calling. Plus, the way the hand played out, Villain knows you are unlikely to have a flush.

AK, KQ, KJ, and KK would have probably raised preflop and/or put more money in somewhere along the line.

I think Villain usually would have put more money in on flop and/or turn with 77, 88, or 87, so I would discount the possibility of those hands.

I don't see the normal opponent calling to the river very often with just a gutshot, so I think you only see JT of spades here, so you can probably eliminate JT and just add JT of spades to any spade flush.

So, now we are down to 65, K9, and any spade flush v. 98, T9, Kx (x is T or lower), and air.

Your hand v. 65, K9, JT of spades, A8-85 of spades, KT-K3 (to give an approximation of how often you see a Kx), 98, and T9 is a 67.4/32.6 favorite. Adding 84-82 of spades doesn't change much.

Even if you take out K6-K4, you are a 56.3/43.7 favorite. You are still ahead if you add 99-77. Adding 33 finally puts you below 50% equity.

It is almost impossible to find a range where you are winning less than the 31.25% of the time that you need. Call.

My guess is that you ran into a backdoor flush w/ an 8 or K9.

[Kassu]

I can only imagine villain value beting so big there with K9, 65s, 99 and possibly 98. I am only beating one of those hands. Maybe I'm overestimating my opponent though. He could be one of those players who "can have any hand at any time" or just going apeshit with missed clubs.

Against a solid player, whose hand range is more narrower and will not pull of such crazy bluffs, I can't mind a fold.

I called and he flipped 65s.

[dpdawson]

65 of spades or just 65s?

Even if he only shows up with K9, 65s, 99, and 98 you are only 68.4/31.6 against and you are only making a small error by calling.

You have to think he might bluff a missed draw at a scary river every once in a while. Even with your tight range + a few bluffs you have to call. If you just add in T9s to his range you are 59.1/40.9 against and should call. He does not need to be bluffing very often to make this a call.

I think you are going to get run over by aggressive players in the long run if you are folding here.