Interesting 15/30 river 2

DeathDonkey · #1 10-14-2007, 04:49 AM

Villain seemed to be solid TAGgish in 90 hands, 30/23/2 with a high went to SD of 45%. (kaandtn)

Thoughts on flop action are appreciated too but what's the river play? check/call, check/raise, bet/call, bet/fold?

Full Tilt Poker $15/$30 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.83 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

milesdyson · #2 10-14-2007, 05:54 AM

all i can say is that c/c is probably not the best. jj-kk prob decide that the river is so bad that you can possibly fold 8x here. so he'd check.

so i think you should bet. whether or not you should fold to a raise or not depends on this guy, but overall i think you should fold. you should very, very rarely actually have an ace here when you bet. that does not mean, whatsoever, that he should raise his jj-kk. so if he does raise the river, he should have trips+.

whodaman · #3 10-14-2007, 06:15 AM

I would not advise b/f as he definetly knows you dont have trips so he could bluff you with missed qj or spades or something.
b/c is bad.
c/c and c/r both seem good. Depends on flow etc. if you c/r you look more like a desperate bluff than an A. but than if he 3 bets you have to fold. I guess i would resort to c/c.

btw i expect him to valuetown 99-kk here atleast 90% of the time.

Adebisi · #4 10-14-2007, 06:38 AM

What do you think of a turn donk here? I don't know how your opponent plays, but if he'll very rarely raise and might fold a bigger A, it definately seems worth it since he's always betting when checked to here.

Personally, I'd cap the flop against this guy and just bet the hand through. I think there's too high a liklihood of a 30/23/2 having just overcards here to call/call after his flop 3-bet.

gaming_mouse · #5 10-14-2007, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
all i can say is that c/c is probably not the best. jj-kk prob decide that the river is so bad that you can possibly fold 8x here. so he'd check.

so i think you should bet. whether or not you should fold to a raise or not depends on this guy, but overall i think you should fold. you should very, very rarely actually have an ace here when you bet. that does not mean, whatsoever, that he should raise his jj-kk. so if he does raise the river, he should have trips+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly my thoughts.

whodaman -- villain raising missed QJs here would be pretty stupid I think.

newhizzle · #6 10-14-2007, 01:15 PM

here i like a bet/fold against most players, enough [censored] didnt get there that hes going to call you with a worse hand and thats a scary enough card that i dont want it to get checked through, i doubt you get bluffraised too often and your kicker is worthless, if hes notorious, id call, otherwise i think its a fold, most people dont think that most people will fold an ace here, because most wont, although with a very strong read it would be an interesting spot to raise like a pocket pair

whodaman · #7 10-14-2007, 07:38 PM

why is b/f better than c/c..... do you guys really think he doesn't bet 99-kk here? Plus you never get bluffed and you let him bluff.
in order for us to have an A here we have to have A6, A8, or Ax of spades. So he should value bet with 99+ for sure.
what hands check behind the river that would call a donk? maybe 6x or 8x, but i don't think that makes up a big part of his range.

danzasmack · #8 10-15-2007, 01:27 AM

"why is b/f better than c/c..... do you guys really think he doesn't bet 99-kk here? Plus you never get bluffed and you let him bluff."

I don't think the turns 99-KK into a bluff and i think it's a good bluff catcher. I think i b/f here 1/3 and the rest of the time c/c.

Also i c/c the flop about 1/4. Then i'd c/c turn and b/f river. River is 100% b/f if you c/c flop.

MickeyWins · #9 10-15-2007, 09:56 PM

You absolutely have to bet. Deciding to call a raise is player dependent. But lean towards folding. (somehow I totally enjoyed giving you advice..lol [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

blumpkin · #10 10-16-2007, 04:34 PM

FWIW there are many players in the 15/30 and 30/60 FTP 6-max games that will value bet JJ-KK, even when the river is an A like it is here.