Hmmm...

[jgorham]

If you are thinking about betting the river, doesn't that mean that you should have raised the turn? I mean I think this hand comes down to if this guy is a good player or a bad player. Because if he is good, you are probably about to get checkraised, and if he is bad he probably has AA or AJ or QT(or KK) and you should bet.

Unfortunately at this point you haven't played with him much, so you don't have a solid read on him. In general I presume people I have never played with before are bad until proven otherwise. But more than that, you can look at how he played this hand to guess if he is good or bad.

To me, his flop and turn action say "I'm a bad player" because it makes sense with no hands. Since he can't have AKd he either has a big pair, AJ, or a draw like QT or diamonds. Both of these draws are sorta hard given the preflop action and the fact that you have the Kd, but still possible.

Now based on your pf and flop action, he has to put you on a big pair or draw, but again the draw is difficult since KQ is probably not capping the flop and there just aren't that many diamond hands that 3bet preflop. So if he has a big hand he should be confident that you are going to bet the turn if checked to, and he should raise, and if he has a draw he should know that you aren't going to fold anything, especially to a bet bet turn river line. Not to mention that him having a draw makes it even harder for you to have one as well.

Now its possible that he bet the turn hoping to go three bets, but he has to realize that leading when the board pairs makes it less likely that you will raise (again this is just trying to figure out if he is good or bad). So it seems to me that he is just overaggressive and not thinking beyond the point of "must not give draw free cards." I still think raising the turn is probably better than calling, but it is very close and not really the point of your post.

So the flop and turn action make me think that he is bad and therefore bet the turn because he put you on a draw, and checked when the draw got there because he doesn't want to get raised. So I bet the river.

[sup_bro]

i dont want to say this is an EASY decision but IF he had the flush draw how could he NOT bet his made hand, IF he had a boat how could he miss a bet there, i really think he has that J and was putting u on that flush draw.....like AdKd...i am just a proponent of betting this river, if he CR's you, then i think it is an easy muck....

[blackasthma]

if you bet here, i think you must call a c/r...

[elindauer]

I would usually bet this unthinkingly, but in a high stakes game, I think this is a check. The Qd is a very scary card, since QQ got there as well as diamonds. It's easy to imagine a passive(ish) player deciding to check this hand. If you bet, maybe TT pays you off, but that's about it. It's close when you are called, but the risk of being check-raised by a tricky player swings it to a check for me.

-eric

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I would usually bet this unthinkingly, but in a high stakes game, I think this is a check. The Qd is a very scary card, since QQ got there as well as diamonds. It's easy to imagine a passive(ish) player deciding to check this hand. If you bet, maybe TT pays you off, but that's about it. It's close when you are called, but the risk of being check-raised by a tricky player swings it to a check for me.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this. i think if we are betting, it is a bluff.

[Abbaddabba]

The whole reason you'd call a check/raise on the river is because you think there's a good enough chance that he'd do it with a worse hand.

If you think you're dumping money, you might as well just fold.


PS: if you're planning on checking kings behind here, his check/raise attempt is pretty awful since it is basically only effective when you have AA (i assume you value bet that). If you had anything better, you'd raise his bet with anything you could reasonably have.

[mike l.]

"Easy bet? Tough bet? Easy check?"

you forgot tough check. it's a tough check but that's the play. his most likely hand is AA and he's check-calling now because in his mind the Q is an ugly card. when people bet the turn into flop cappers it's usually because they want to bet-3 bet.

the only way this would not be the case is if this is a bigger game where people tend to not cap with AA hu because they want to disguise it. but since you dont know him assume AA from how he played it.

[Heir_Aparent]

checkeroo

[worm33]

I bet all day here with no prior history. Why is everybody giving this guy so much credit? He can only checkraise with JJ QQ or a flush, and a flush is unlikely since the Kd and Qd are accounted for.

I think hes check calling here with AJ, 10's or some other weak hand about 5 times as often as hes check calling with AA.

[Victor]

are all u geniuses really calling a cr?