Dumb probably math question 400 NL

DeathDonkey · #1 06-02-2007, 10:54 PM

SB is ok and almost surely has a set. Button is horrible and I'm about 90% sure he is going all in on the turn no matter what I do. Button has 185 left on turn so if he pushes it doesn't reopen the betting. Can I call this and fold river unimproved? The bet size by SB put me right in the gray area I thought.

Thanks,
DeathDonkey

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($1355.60)
Button ($289.30)
SB ($431)
BB ($186.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $14, Button calls $14, SB calls $12, BB calls $10.

Flop: ($56) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $45, Button raises to $90, SB calls $90, BB folds, Hero calls $45.

Turn: ($326) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $110,

mustmuck · #2 06-02-2007, 11:06 PM

This is only grey because SB won't have enough to get away on the river. However, while you say he is "ok", this turn bet would have him pegged as a bit of a donkey in my book.

tarheeljks · #3 06-02-2007, 11:20 PM

if button always pushes and sb always just calls you are getting 185:881 ~ 20% equity, approx 20% chance of hitting. so a call seems fine at first. however, sb would only have 142, 1/6 psb, so he's probably pushing.

so if you want to see the river you are really calling the sb's 110 + 217 = 327 on the turn. so you are really getting 327 into a pot of (326 + 327 (sb)+ 327(hero) + 185(bt)= 1165. 327:1165 ~ 30% equity. so this looks like a fold.

edit: so if sb thinks button is pushing regardless, this donk bet is good b/c it makes it look like you have pretty good odds.

RiverHebrew2 · #4 06-03-2007, 12:01 AM

I would say SB has a set. I would be worried about button coming over the top if u flatcalled becuz he minraised flop (prob with monster) , so in this case, I'd probably fold. If you had the button this would be much easier to draw with these great odds. BTW shoving here is terrible becuz IMO someone has a monster here def IMO and there is no FE

DeathDonkey · #5 06-03-2007, 01:29 AM

Don't mean to be a dick but you last two guys didn't read my post very carefully. SB cannot reraise if button pushes because he doesn't have enough left to re-open the betting. Thank you for the quick equity calc tarheeljks, I think that settles it for me and it was a fine call. With the timer running down I knew it was close so I thought I better check up on myself. It's also a bit better as I have implied odds of the rest of SB's stack and zero reverse implied odds.

Agreed a turn push would be ridiculous. No happy ending, I bricked off, SB pushed and won with 44 to beat button's KJ.

-DeathDonkey

dchz · #6 06-03-2007, 03:06 AM

roughly this is 4:1 on the initial call and if button pushes it's gonna be 7:2 on the call if you count it as making the decision on the turn, and you need ~6:1(discouting heart outs)

i say roughly this is a call for me, (roughly the right odds, and also the times when tehy just come up with some random holding)

FWIW, i do not think this is always a set....

it really looks like a flush draw to me?

but i guess that depends on how bad SB is...

but i'd call

bugstud · #7 06-03-2007, 08:33 AM

maybe this seems dumb, but wouldn't you want to stick it in on the flop if you think sb has set and button has something dumb to stack with?

DeathDonkey · #8 06-03-2007, 01:32 PM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

105,651 games 0.015 secs 7,043,400 games/sec

Board: Js Kh 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.916% 25.31% 00.60% 26745 636.00 { QhTc }
Hand 1: 66.988% 66.99% 00.00% 70773 0.00 { 4c4h, 4c4s, 4h4s }
Hand 2: 07.096% 06.49% 00.60% 6861 636.00 { AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

Looks like a definite no.

dchz, I wouldn't discount diamonds and you said its a call despite that so ok I'm happy with the play.

-DeathDonkey