Hmmm...

[Michael80]

Until I know that he plays real well, I bet here.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty easy bet imo. He has a J, QT, TT often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree, could be a bet but it's def. close if it is and i actually think it's a check by a dec. margin. He's unknown preflop, so we have to be weighting veeeery heavily against QT, and any jack other than AJ. Also AJ will certainly not always cap this PF, whereas obv. AA-TT, AK pretty much always will. His flop play is could be consistent with any of the aforementioned capping range exceot for AK, except for AK unless it's diamonds which we are now behind.

I can see him capping the flop and leading with TT-AA, but obv. by the river we beat only TT, and given how strongly the hand was played up to the river that is slightly less likely than the others, and there are just less combo's of it since it's exactly one possibly holding. He could easily be going for a check-raise with queens full, jacks full, or quad nines. He might also check-raise AA for value depending on how he thinks we play, or he might just think a check-call with KK or AA is more prudent since diamonds did get there and in the aggressive nature of the game, worse hands will value bet anyway.

Also note that if you are betting KK here, it would following that you are value betting AJ. You obviously are not giving him a flush or boat, and for that river to improve him otherwise he has to have exactly QT, Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which we have no reason to this he caps preflop, and once he improves on the river it's hard to imagine he would check the river with these hands since he has to call a bet and can only really get raised on this river card by QQ or a flush (unlikely since in these scenarios, he either has a Q or has 2 diamonds) So really i don't see why everyone thinks there is so much value in a bet. Sure the dude could suck, but you don't know him, he's playing 100/200, and if he's capable of half the analysis i just did you should usually be crushed or nopt getting paid here.

[DpR]

i mostly agre and would check.

[Heisenb3rg]

To all the AJ! AJ! AJ! BET! players, are you considering that he capped pre-flop?

If you define his range as AJ or AA, there are 6 combos of AA and only 11 combos of AJ that you beat. He probabily thinks a flush draw or QQ is a significant part of your range, given the flop cap so I can easily see AA checking this river. Discount AA a little for the river check, but not much.

Sure high stakes players CAP for deception way more.. But AJo over half the time???
Possibly even more than half the time because a small % of the time he can have JJ or QQ and is being trixy... If he reads you for a flush draw, he could be (incorrectly) trying to c/r your made flush with his full house. A 4-bet in position in schneids spot is often done with a draw.

His line screams to me AA or Trixy c/r. Therefore, I think this is a pretty easy check. Maybe I underestimate the PF agression of high stakes players.

If you do put him as super agro PF and post flop, you have to give a much higher weighting to QT/AJ and now it becoms a lot closer.

If hes capping these hands consitantly (> 50%), I dont care how good you are postflop, he's going to get murdered in any game and this should have stood out to schneids right away.

Final thing to consider:
If you were in villains position and did have AJ.. Can you even call schneids bet if you check?

[ALLEN BOND]

I would check this river.

[icfishies]

I'm surprised Schneids hasn't said what villain had/what he did on the river by now. Guess I should be the spoiler?

[Freganism]

I think he should bet this

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised Schneids hasn't said what villain had/what he did on the river by now. Guess I should be the spoiler?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet, villain called, and we chopped the pot.

[guntd]

how would his flop play be bad with AA? Seems good to me. 4 bets on the flop, then check raise on turn.