Paperchamp's NFL Week 5

paperchamp · #1 10-02-2007, 08:50 PM

First pick of the week....

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

Last week was a good time to fade the Steelers but after their lackluster performance against the Cardinals it's time to come back to the other side. The Steelers looked terrible losing by 14 against the Cardinals but the game was much closer than the score indicated. This week they return nearly to full strength getting back Polamalu, Spaeth, and Hampton. Spaeth helps spread the field for the passing game which in turn helps Parker get better looks. Palamalu and Hampton are the two most important guys on the Steeler defense.

YTD

4-9-1
-12.1u

gringo_grinder · #2 10-02-2007, 09:01 PM

Any word on if Ward will be back?

Seattle's 2nd road game in a row too. I also like Pitts.

paperchamp · #3 10-02-2007, 10:52 PM

Ward will likely not play but starting Wednesday he will be practicing.

paperchamp · #4 10-02-2007, 10:58 PM

One game that interests me is San Diego +1.5 at Denver. They have obviously underperformed this year but I expect them to bounce back at some point. I'm curious to see how the public goes on this one. Denver's home field advantage is hyped pretty hard.

Tyler Durden · #5 10-02-2007, 11:11 PM

The Steelers lost by 7 to Arizona.

psuasskicker · #6 10-02-2007, 11:23 PM

I dunno about this one PC... The thing that really bothers me about this line is that I've got a really tough time seeing the game being a pick'em in Seattle. I feel like this line's a point and a half off or so...Sea +4 or +4.5 (I can get +6 -115 on my book). It opened +6 and money (sharps?) seem to be pushing it in Sea's favor. I'm waiting on it though cause I think public money will shove Pitt's way and am hoping I can get +6.5 or <gasp> +7 on game-day.

Also not a fan of SD with points, or Denver for that matter. I feel like SD's gonna have an epic collapse this year (record time for a coach to completely lose his team + Rivers suddenly sucks), but I really hated the way that Denver had Indi by the throat and suddenly rolled over and died. I'm laying off this one.

- C -

gringo_grinder · #7 10-02-2007, 11:41 PM

The Den/SD game puzzled me when I saw the line at -1. I like Denver at home. Denver ALWAYS plays SD hard and has a history of shutting down LT.

I like Denver.

theclock · #8 10-03-2007, 12:05 AM

Don't like the either games as I feel both are coinflips. DEN & SD are both horrible right now. SD couldn't beat KC, wtf? DEN looked silly against the Jags.

As for the Hawks-Steelers, I had 10 units on each team last week. Steelers made a third and long for a TD but made way too many mistakes for a team of this calibur. Seattle on the other hand, had next to no trouble against the Niners. Even though the Niners should've lost to ARI, this game is too close to call. I'll lay off this one.

So far I like,

NYG -3.5 over NY Jets
GB -3 over Bears

Depending on the line, the Rams and Panthers look like a good bet for a small 1-2 unit play. Panthers are currently +3 (2.10) at Pinny.

AllinDan · #9 10-03-2007, 12:14 AM

I can't understand how Jax is only giving up 2 points at KC. Yeah they just beat SD, and yeah Jax has had a slow offensive start, but they are coming off a bye, and had an impressive showing at Denver.

I also like the GB line a lot. I don't think anyone who has watched the NFL this year needs more analysis on that one

kyro · #10 10-03-2007, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't understand how Jax is only giving up 2 points at KC. Yeah they just beat SD, and yeah Jax has had a slow offensive start, but they are coming off a bye, and had an impressive showing at Denver.

I also like the GB line a lot. I don't think anyone who has watched the NFL this year needs more analysis on that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Arrowhead is typically considered one of the toughest places to play a road game. Neutral field the line would be larger than 5 I think.