hu sng variance

[acidca]

I don't think there is as much variance heads up as people seem to think. If I am better than my opponent, I will win most of the time. If he is better than I am, he will usually win.
Some styles have more variance than others. Let's take two hypothetical examples. I'm a significantly better player than both John and Charlie:
John is very loose and ultra-aggro. He overplays hands and never backs down.
Charlie is too tight preflop, and decent post-flop but too predictable. He doesn't veer away from ABC poker very often.
I beleive I'll win somewhere in the neighborhood of 65% of my matches against John but about 80% of my matches against Charlie.

Also, people think variance is very high in heads up matches because they look at preflop all-in odds. But this is silly. How many of your matches are decided on preflop all-ins? I know not very many of mine are.

I think that, if you were really better than ALL of your opposition at a particular level, your winrate would be in the neighborhood of 75%*

*This conjecture does not apply to turbos, and also is without any scientific basis or merit.


This being said, I think the biggest factor affecting a heads-up winrate is how often you get paired up against someone who outplays you.

[omgwtfnoway]

it's w/o scientific basis (atleast in this thread) but it's not without merit. i agree with you.

[ QUOTE ]
the biggest factor affecting a heads-up winrate is how often you get paired up against someone who outplays you

[/ QUOTE ]this applies to every game of poker.

[ThePhenom919]

I've never posted as I find most of these topics dumb...but variance is 1000000x greater hu than in any other game. Why do you think the BEST hu players win only 56-65% of the time...its definately not a lack of skill...You winning "most of the time" is probably what...50-60%, thats called horrible variance sir.

[Indiana]

phenom,

you don't understand variance.

Indy

[acidca]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the biggest factor affecting a heads-up winrate is how often you get paired up against someone who outplays you

[/ QUOTE ]this applies to every game of poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I beleive it is particularly true of heads-up matches. Or at least more noticeably true.

Also: the deeper you are, the higher the variance on a given hand, but the lower the variance in a freezeout. True/false?

[roommate]

respect phenom he's the man....

furthermore... HU is very streaky...

for the definitive post on the subject (sort of) read the current post "full ring v HU sngs" I would link it... but someone else has to... i'm [censored] at linking.

~rob

[acidca]

[ QUOTE ]
respect phenom he's the man....

furthermore... HU is very streaky...

for the definitive post on the subject (sort of) read the current post "full ring v HU sngs" I would link it... but someone else has to... i'm [censored] at linking.

~rob

[/ QUOTE ]


this thread is linked to in the discussion I beleive you are referring to. If that's what you're talking about, my point is that they all use % chance to win as a constant, which I am arguing it isn't. I beleive this makes variance significantly lower.

[omgwtfnoway]

how would you go about determining a non constant winrate?

[roundhouse]

[ QUOTE ]
this thread is linked to in the discussion I beleive you are referring to. If that's what you're talking about, my point is that they all use % chance to win as a constant, which I am arguing it isn't. I beleive this makes variance significantly lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, win rate isn't constant, it varies from opponent to opponent and (hopefully) improves on average over time as your skill develops. I'm not convinced it significantly reduces variance though, unless you are excercising selectively stringent game selection (i.e. when you hit a run of poor results you tighten up your game selection, electing to play only poorer opponents until you turn things around). If you practice game selection as a constant your average win rate should reflect this.

I might run some crude simulations to settle this, it's an interesting question. If 60% is your average win rate, what do people think a sensible range of expected win rates against different individual opponents is? 40-75%?

RH

[roommate]

Haha... yeah right not even close.

I WROTE THE DEFINITIVE POST... and it is a current topic.

duh

~rob