Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?

[Ricks]

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okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

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Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here.

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also fwiw, he never has a bigger flush draw here. AK and AQ are drawing hands to him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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That pretty much leaves him with AA,KK, or maybe QQ. This gives you an equity advantage of a few % points. If he has the A,K or Q of clubs in his hand your equity advantage is really tiny. I am all for getting the money in with the most equity but at some point you will have to wonder if he has a set. Just because he limped JJ once doesn't mean he will always limp his big pairs.

Your likely equity advantage is small and it will change dramatically for the worse if you do not get a good turn card. Another bet might get you a free turn card and I would take it. If he 7-bets, I am beginning to worry about a set which would put you at a 60/40 equity disadvantage.