UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79

[Viscant]

Yes, I am making some assumptions, but for the most part they're pretty safe.
Like, Thiago on top for example. He's a legit BJJ black belt with great grappling credentials. Do you REALLY think Houston is going to win this fight if Thiago winds up on top of him? I mean, yeah I respect Houston's strength and his wrestling (which is why I don't want Thiago to pull guard), but with Thiago on top, this doesn't end well for Houston. It just doesn't. Yeah, I fully admit I don't know very much about Houston's BJJ skill, but assuming that Thiago's is better is not a stretch. Not even a little bit.

Also questioning Houston's cardio is still pretty valid, IMO. I'm not basing it off of him sucking wind after the Sakara fight (although to be honest that's kind of a red flag), I'm basing it off him not having the experience here yet. I can name you 10+ guys I've met and worked out with personally who have the best gym cardio in the world and still gas repeatedly under fight conditions (like I said, I can name a lot, but the one I'm thinking of right now is Vernon White), so while I understand that you've seen Houston have some great workouts, his in fight cardio is still under review.


I think if we take the names out of this, it becomes a lot closer than you're making it out to be. On paper we have two Muay Thai strikers who fall into clinches because of how they throw. I think the likelihood of a clinch in this fight is very very high and I think we both agree on that (you think that Thiago will be against the fence for sure, I disagree). I think that from this position, the man with the better BJJ has a huge advantage because should the fight end on the ground, Thiago certainly has the advantage, in experience and in credentials, and I think we can both agree on that.

I respect your opinion and a lot of what you said in your post was true. There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.

We'll see tomorrow I suppose and if I'm wrong and Houston completely manhandles Thiago in the clinch or if the fight goes to the ground and Houston overpowers him, then I'll be the first to step up and admit that I was wrong. I just see too many doubts in this fight and too much left to be answered for Houston at this time.