KK - tough river decision - Page 2

jstill · #11 02-12-2007, 11:35 AM

Oink dont bet this. If its HU and the other guy had initiative and checks this river u can bet that (even then a portion of that time its a small flush but the bet is likely +EV), but here as gehrig says ur equity vs two random hands is terrible and theres no real reason to think both of them dont have a weak heart they'll showodown.

not only that but getting paid off by worse hands will be harder in a protected pot. Particularly the guy in the middle is going to have a real hard time calling a bet with any non-diamond hand. Hoping to fold him out with a small heart also doesn't seem worth the investment however and betting does open u up to the problems Tom mentioned besides just being a -EV bet even if they could only call.

mvoss · #12 02-12-2007, 11:36 AM

Check behind and see a showdown. Losing a 12.75 BB pot to a bluff here really sucks. What worse hands are calling anyway?

danzasmack · #13 02-12-2007, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check behind and see a showdown. Losing a 12.75 BB pot to a bluff here really sucks. What worse hands are calling anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

We need one guy to have 2 pair or a set to call here. We have no idea they have that.

This is a value bet for one bet here that doesn't get called a lot and I would say a good amount of time you get called and lose.

This is a check.

mute · #14 02-12-2007, 11:52 AM

Capping the flop is certainly an option, but I don't mind waiting for safe turn card to pop it.

I would be delighted to be able to check through on the river.

rigoletto · #15 02-12-2007, 03:58 PM

I b/c this all day long:

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] practically allways valuebet here and 8/7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will often do so too. Considering the action I can't really imagine any hands with a small heart that stayed till river. Our only real worry is Q, but that will also bet the river quite often. Given this I think a c/r will be a desparation bluff quite often.

Given the pot size a lot of hands will call a bet!!!!

By the way: raise the turn!

Flintoff · #16 02-12-2007, 06:16 PM

I thought about this hand some more and I think I played it ok.

I didnt cap the flop because I was going to raise the turn. Obviously the 9 hearts wasn't a great card.

I checked behind on the river because I thought anyone with a queen would have checked anyway.

TomBrooks · #17 02-12-2007, 10:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt cap the flop because I was going to raise the turn. Obviously the 9 hearts wasn't a great card.

[/ QUOTE ]
While the 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] presented a double threat, other cards you'd have to be concerned about coming, if you're not already behind the popularly played JT, include any 7, 8, the other 9s, any T, J, Q, or A; and yes, any King. In other words, almost 2/3rds (30/47) of the deck.

I might cap the flop with my one pair while I thought I might still have the best hand and I had two players to trap. I'll note you don't have to worry about bloating the pot because any gutshot will still have odds to call on the turn even if you don't cap.

I wouldn't be planning on raising most turns.

Case · #18 02-13-2007, 04:30 AM

I believe I'd cap the flop and then bet turn if checked to (fold to a c/r) or call down if bet into. Reasonable?

TomBrooks · #19 02-13-2007, 04:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I believe I'd cap the flop and then bet turn if checked to (fold to a c/r) or call down if bet into. Reasonable?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep, generally. Unless someone is capable of c/r'g with something like top pair and A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Then you have a tough decision. How would you play it if you had the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?