99 donked twice. - Page 2

Burnsabre · #11 01-31-2007, 11:05 AM

You can't call just call on the flop to raise the turn because it makes it too cheap for utg+1 to come along. I vote for raise flop and fold turn... there is a very pressing need to protect your hand on this board with a weak jack, and it seems that's what CO is doing...

Snafu'd · #12 01-31-2007, 11:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call just call on the flop to raise the turn because it makes it too cheap for utg+1 to come along. I vote for raise flop and fold turn... there is a very pressing need to protect your hand on this board with a weak jack, and it seems that's what CO is doing...

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright, but the pot is already very large and it is doubtful any draws are folding the flop for two bets. Why not try to get them to fold the turn for two big bets? Even if they may still be getting odds to call on the turn it seems more likely that they could fold incorrectly on the big street. The advantage I see to this play is that it could get you a free showdown. Anyway, I'm asking opinions more than I am disagreeing with you.

Burnsabre · #13 01-31-2007, 05:35 PM

How dare you disagree with me or uh... ask my opinion.. lol.

on the flop utg1 would be getting ~8 to 1 when faced with 2
on the turn utg1 would be getting ~5 to 1 when faced with 2

going with the read that CU indeed has a weak jack, if utg folds the gutshot QT or Q9, its a bad fold on the flop because his Q is live. If he folds it on the turn its a correct fold. If he has an oesd or a fd, theres no betting pattern that makes his coming along unprofitable. Id rather have utg1 make a bad fold on the flop than a good fold on the turn.

I tend to save these turn hand protection raises for 4 way pots.

edit: as far as the free sd, yeah, itd be nice... but I'm convinced you're up against a weak jack here.. so in my mind itd be a slightly expensive shot at a 2 outer on the river (plus the added value of closure so that you may grieve for your nines)

TomBrooks · #14 01-31-2007, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
CO is 30/19/3.71.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking you should fold somewhere, but OTOH CO has a high AF. How many hands do you have on him?

Nightbrace · #15 02-02-2007, 07:28 AM

I like it!

rigoletto · #16 02-02-2007, 07:58 AM

I raise the turn. This donk is rarely a Jack. Villain raised preflop whic usually would mean QJ-AJ and these hands 3-bet the flop. I find it more likely that he is donking an 8, an underpair or a big draw. A monster (JJ, 88, A3) would want to c/r the field. The good thing about raising is that UG+1 will often call 2 cold when he has a flush or straight draw, so you get a good overlay when you are ahead.