According to ICM: it's correct to fold AA on this bubble

[JackStrap]

According to ICM: it's correct to fold AA on this bubble

i ran into a weird situation and i want to know if my reasoning is correct


9 players SNG {.5,.3,.2}


4 players left, suppose everyone have the same stack 3375, blinds are 200/400 we are BB
Co go all-in, Button calls, SB calls we have AA.

My reasoning,

We fold and we are against 1 winners (forget about split pot)
Our stack 3375-BB=2900 ICM: .34
him 10125+BB=10525 ICM: .45

We Call and win they tourney

ICM = .50

We loose on the bubble

ICM = 0



So considering this, to make calling > folding we must have an equity superior than 68%

.34 =< eq*.50 where eq =< 68%

Well against all logical ranges it's impossible to get 68% against 3 players on this spot

so good fold?

[RexWoo]

The thing is your equity is not 0 if you lose. You will be probably second (0.3), 3rd (0.2) or something in between in case of tie and very very very rarely 0.

This is an instacall, of course.

[LordLinse]

I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.

[JackStrap]

thanks i forget that , but whats is the correct range for calling if opponent are decents

QQ+ ?

[JackStrap]

[ QUOTE ]
I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]


Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ...

[Niggel]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks i forget that , but whats is the correct range for calling if opponent are decents

QQ+ ?

[/ QUOTE ]

If they are decent KK+ if they are regulars/good players I would just call here with AA.

<font color="pink"> Nit4life </font> [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Kevin8423]

If multiple people go out with the same amount of chips does it go by best hand or does the prize just split? I think either way you can call a bit wider, like JJ+, and be pretty profitable.

[djcarter66]

It looks like everything hinges one how 2nd, 3rd are paid (ties?)

If as previous poster stated you are not guarenteed a payout it could be a good fold. (i.e. you have one dollar less than everyone). If however you are a dollar ahead you would be guarenteed 2nd (which is where you would probably end up by folding anyway since you are now a big dog HU)and a favorite for 1st so push. I'm not counting splits or anything.

Ultimately it would just be really hard not to fist pump, push and deal with whatever comes.

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]


Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ...

[/ QUOTE ]

yah or if you had 16 chips and all three went in pf. i'd fold aces right thurrrrrrr.

[darom03]

If we give the Hero 9 chips less than the three others, would a fold be justified?

I don't think so, but it has become close than in OP's example.

Maybe I would fold KK in that spot. Most certainly AKs and QQ... I think.