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Old 11-29-2007, 06:42 AM
Gamblor Gamblor is offline
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Default Theoretical: Making -EV bets on the river

I couldn't really find anything in search for this so here goes.

Theoretical example: You're in a pretty tight game but with bad players who fold too often.

So you've been doing a lot of happy stealing and have determined that your LAG strategy is the most profitable.

Some people limp, and you raise 98s on the button, because a C-bet will take this pot down if it doesn't hit anyone hard. The flop is Q94 with some flush draw. You bet and one MP player calls. You decide he has a flush draw or JT most of the time here, any hand that beats you he would play faster. The turn bricks off and it goes check-check or you make a smallish value bet vs. the draw. The river bricks too and your opponent checks.

It makes logical sense to me, that this would be a good time for a bet. First, it is painfully obvious that a bet against many players thinking on the first level and who will not call you with a worse hand on the river, or fold a better hand, is -EV. But I feel there is some value in a bet - specifically the value of not giving away information about your hand.

The value of not showing your opponents that you raise non-premium hands is worth giving up some EV on that one hand, so you can continue to steal often and win your chips while they ignorantly continue to play too tight.

Is this a play any of you often think about or make? Is the logic faulty in any way?
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