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  #71  
Old 11-22-2005, 02:13 AM
beenben beenben is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

1) I don't generally steal on stars until the ante level or maybe one before it.

2) It's a mistake to trap with bottom two pair. but be aware that you're behind to a big blind special straight and there's a potential heart draw, potential slow played sets and overcards. So I bet to get information. Bet 120.

3) My plan on the turn would be to fire again, regardless of the card. Probably 200.

4) there's a wide range of hands the BB could call here.
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  #72  
Old 11-22-2005, 02:19 AM
mlagoo mlagoo is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

the problem is, just calling cards "scare cards" when youve done nothing to define your opponents hand is not.. winning poker, i guess.

i mean, he could have KQ offsuit here. he could have anything. having checked through the flop, why would any particular card be a "scare card?" maybe a 2 makes him a set. are we scared of a 2?
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  #73  
Old 11-22-2005, 03:37 AM
Paul Thomson Paul Thomson is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

[ QUOTE ]
the problem is, just calling cards "scare cards" when youve done nothing to define your opponents hand is not.. winning poker, i guess.

i mean, he could have KQ offsuit here. he could have anything. having checked through the flop, why would any particular card be a "scare card?" maybe a 2 makes him a set. are we scared of a 2

[/ QUOTE ]

You're totally right. I played with a couple different range of hands to get at what would be a scare card. I did some math as to what his pot equity would be, odds given his range, etc.

Here was my basic thought. The only hands I don't like giving free cards to are pocket pairs that would fold before the flop, these include pocket 22,33,44. And I don't want to give a free card to TT-AA who I could value bet. Although I think QQ-AA are less likely given the preflop action. Pocket 66, 88 I wouldn't want to give free cards to either with 6 outs to us.

Hands I don't mind giving a free card to are.
8-9 outs: any flush draw, 67, 56, 46, 8T, 78, 89,
we're behind: 8hTh, 6h4h, 5h6h, 86, 77, 55, 99

Although we don't have a read on the Villian, I'm inclined to put him on medium pocket pairs or medium suited conectors. In other words, hands I don't mind giving a free card.

But what really surprised me is kinda what you hinted at, any card could be a scare card. And since this is the case, the villian can feel free to play at me the rest of the hand. And I won't know where I'm at. So I'd rather keep the pot small and let him do the betting for me.

The biggest problem about giving a free card in the line that I provided is that you give an opponent who called with a small pair (such as pocket deuces) a free card to hit a set, who would have otherwise folded to a flop bet. However, any other hand that you're opponent would reasonably play, would have at the minimum 8-9 outs, except for over cards such as TT-AA (but I think QQ-AA are less likely. But maybe not). I think giving a free card to a two outter is worth the risk if that same two outter will bet into you on the turn even if he misses.

Gotta run. But I'll try and put some numbers together tomorrow. I'm not sure the numbers I have are correct or I would have originally posted them. I work on a mac and can't use Pokerstove on this computer. Feel free to flame away. I'm not sure if it's correct, but I think there could be something to it.
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  #74  
Old 11-22-2005, 12:16 PM
grossmeyer grossmeyer is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

Just a few comments on your long post...

Like most everyone else has said, betting the flop is the default play. I'd probably bet about 100 here. But I like the idea of checking too. Since it's early, a check may induce a bluff on the turn if a non-broadway card hits, and they may think we whiffed with our A-K. If I do check behind and a heart hits, I'm not really afraid of them having a flush (very afraid though if a fourth heart comes), and I'd probably do my CB here. If I get raised, I'll definitely call, but might 3-bet if I was feeling gutsy from my read.

Can't wait to see the turn.

-Gross
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  #75  
Old 11-23-2005, 02:20 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

I am responding before reading any other responses or any of the subsequent posts (so I don't know whether other people have already said what I say here or not).

1) I like this bet. I don't care whether it is early or not, if you only raise with premium hands in late position then you are easy to read. You have to mix it up with non-premium hands. My favorite ones to do it with are the small connectors, esp. suited. If you get called you are likely not called by a dominated hand, and still have position, so additional money in the pot generally helps you more than hurts you. I would routinely make the same play.

2) You have to bet. If you don't bet when you hit after raising pre-flop who is going to believe your continuation bets when you miss? Besides, this is a draw-heavy board --- you don't want to give him a free card to potential draws. I would bet 100 here. If he check-raises me, I call after thinking about it 15 seconds(after all he could already have a made straight)

3) Assuming that villian calls my flop bet, I will put him on either a drawing hand (there are tons of possibilities) or a small pair. If a blank comes on the turn and he checks, I would bet 300 or so to scare away his drawing hand. If he bets, I would raise, again to scare away a draw. If a hand hits that could have made his hand (a third heart, or a 6,8, T, or J, for example) then I will proceed more cautiously. If he bets in that case, I will think about it and flat call, with the plan to flat call a reasonable bet on the river but be ready to let it go if I am convinced he made his hand. If he checks, I will still bet, but a check-raise in that case would be a dead giveaway. I would still likely call a reasonable reraise, (I could fill up on the end) but not if I am convinced he has made his hand and I don't have pot odds to draw to a boat. The final possibility is that the turn card gives me a boat (particularly delicious if it is also a heart). In that case, I slowplay it. If he checks, I check, hoping to set him on the river (particularly hoping he makes his hand then because he will pay). If he bets, I would smooth call unless it is a small feeler bet, in which case I would make a small feeler raise.

4. Good questions.
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  #76  
Old 11-23-2005, 02:53 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

I would raise 75s in the CO 100% of the time when there is not a maniac in the SB or BB. I hate doing it with maniacs there because you have to let it go to a big reraise. In that case, I would limp 75%, raise 25% (to test what kind of maniac they are). In middle position, it depends on the players after me. If they are passive, I would almost always raise first one in in mid-positon. If they are calling stations (they will call a raise in late position with a wide range of hands) then I will just limp in many cases, because I don't want to have to play this hand with more than one player betting after me. In EP, in a very passive table, I will open-limp the majority of the time, in a very tight passive table, I might raise (25% of the time), but otherwise I would just fold.
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  #77  
Old 11-23-2005, 03:13 PM
allenciox allenciox is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

Paul, great analyses... I learned a lot from reading your posts. Your analysis helped me understand a bit better why the pros on the World Poker Tour, etc. often check behind in situations like this... an idea that to my more "basic" thinking has always seemed absurd since they are giving a free card. Thanks a lot.
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  #78  
Old 02-01-2007, 12:17 PM
mariachiinc mariachiinc is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

1) I don't steal this early, especially with 75s.

2) Bet the pot, with 2 hearts, no drawing allowed.

3) If he calls, play very slow if a heart turns (c/c small bet) If another rag I'd bet 1/2 the pot

4) No need to get fancy this early.
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  #79  
Old 02-02-2007, 06:46 PM
kingwood kid kingwood kid is offline
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Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

Low-stakes, no point stealing first ten hands or so. Too many maniacs will shove with anything. Must've seen it on TV by somebody with a book, even though the exact circumstances may have been a little different. At a $650 MTT, stealing early is fine. As others have said, either you pick up the blinds or are in position and are well-disguised. C-bet almost automatic if flop is checked.

Post-flop, I bet 100-150. 4 cards help me; a lot more scare me. Taking it down here stills my beating heart.
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