Very ugly spot w/ set vs. THE__D__RY in 50r

[cappla011]

I usually don't post hands, but I wasn't sure what to do in this one.

Villain is THE__D__RY in the 50r. It is about ten minutes before the first break, but shove-and-pray play has stopped, and everyone has been playing pretty standard, but still aggressive.

Poker Stars, $50 + $5 NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: 4,820
BTN: 8,295
SB: 4,915
BB: 2,810
Hero (UTG): 6,455
UTG+1: 7,230
UTG+2: 2,680
MP1: 8,805
MP2: 6,875

Pre-Flop: (150) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero calls 100, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">UTG+2 raises to 300</font>, MP1 calls 300, MP2 calls 300, CO calls 300, BTN calls 300, SB calls 250, BB calls 200, Hero calls 200

Flop: (2,400) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 900</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to 1,800</font>, 5 folds, <font color="red">Hero ????</font>


Is this a standard shove? I can't see myself beating much of anything, but can I fold a set in the rebuy stage? Does he ever have just the Ah here? I feel I should be leading out here, but was the bet way too weak?

Thoughts are appreciated, thanks.

[RickOSU]

snap shove. This isn't even close.

edit: bet more on flop

[cappla011]

Yeah, that's what I figured. Thanks.

[RandALLin]

fold he has middle set :P.

[registrar]

That's a really horrible flop bet size from UTG into eight players, on that flop, with the whole table but one player in with a huge range. What possible good can come of it?

[cappla011]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a really horrible flop bet size from UTG into eight players, on that flop, with the whole table but one player in with a huge range. What possible good can come of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

To entice an Ah-rag overshove?

But seriously, I don't know. I really don't know what would be the appropriate bet amount. But with seven players after me, and still in the rebuy stage of the tournament, on this draw-heavy board, shouldn't I expect that it's all going to get in on the flop regardless of what I bet?

But overall, I think the flop bet was too weak only considering the chance that 1 or 2 players flat call and they are given an easy turn card, but which I think is very rare considering the tournament/ # of draws/ # of players/ stack sizes.

Am I horribly wrong still?

[Steve Williams]

[ QUOTE ]


shouldn't I expect that it's all going to get in on the flop regardless of what I bet?



[/ QUOTE ]

You may as well pot it yourself then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[registrar]

Well, if the plan is to snap call a shove, then fine. But, no, I don't really like that plan because, IMO, people aren't playing all that loose at this stage with those stacks in the $50r. OK, the 3k stacks want to make a move, but you look very strong here (particularly if they are looking at A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) but you're not giving them any FE. I don't think a 6k stack generally takes the risk of being a 3k stack and paying extra vig for the reward of being a 10-12k stack. At least, that's my experience of the $50r.

Also, for the 6k+ stacks, most of them can't call with the hands that you want to call, or move in or whatever, because it's such a crowded pot.

It's an interesting flop spot but I think my point is that I don't think you can persuade anyone they have FE in this situation by betting small. If there were more 3k stacks (who just want to get in in with any reasonable equity), fine but there's only two.

All of this said, I'm not sure how I'd proceed here but I think generally I'd check and see what happens and who takes a stab. Bottom set doesn't feel like a very big hand OOP eight way agaisnt super wide ranges and, I'd be interested to see if others think I'm wrong, but I kind of think 7k is just fine at this stage, not because shipping in another $100 is the end of the world but because having 3k really sucks.

[Pudge714]

[adanthar]

with 7 people in...someone call the probability forum over, because my eyeball of the math says there's a made flush out like 1/3 of the time, and worse, flushes/oversets make up well over half of your action from likely PF-coldcalling hands (assuming the worst hand that calls a UTG bet into eight people is a decent jack).

so anyway, I check and see what happens. if the PFR bets and someone calls, I shove. if he checks and someone bets out a real amount with no callers, I shove, too. with a bet/raise in front, I fold unless you want to take a -EV gamble for a 15K stack (not the worst thing ever, and in fact I might do it here, but just stating it's obv -EV.)

but anyway I think betting is bad and underbetting worse.