Dealmaking by chipcounts - thoughts

[palman]

So I made my first deal in a tournament a few nights ago, in the $70+7 nightly tourney on party.

Relevant information:

Approximate payouts were

1st - $5500
2nd - $3200
3rd - $2100
etc.

There were 6 people left in the tournament, and I was the chipleader with 280k chips. There were 970k chips total in play, meaning I had 28% of the chips in play.

Blinds were 8000/16000, meaning even I only had 20BB.

If we assume all players are equal in skill, and ignore any positional stack advantages.... what is my equity in this tournament? I'm under the impression that a chipleader should always be willing to make a deal based on chipcount. Per the deal by chipcount, I received $3600, yet I only had 28% of the chips in play, which I thought was a fantastic deal. Even if I had a 50/25/25 placement disbursement between 1st/2nd/3rd (which is completely out of whack given my percentage of chips) my equity would only be 4k, and the deal based on chip count netted me $3600.

I was in good position with the next best chipleader to my left, the play being tight, most players likely playing scared whereas the $ involved isn't remotely life-changing for me, and me likely being the most experienced player (playing for a living and long ago playing SnG's exclusively). I just didn't think my advantage could come close to justify not accepting a deal based on chipcount here.

So assuming equal play, just how good of a deal was the deal based on chipcount? I imagine this may be a really easy question to anyone with pokerstove, or a relatively basic math question, but for those of us that do not have it, can anyone enlighten me?

[fiskebent]

There are obviously different ways to distribute the prize money in a deal.

Another method than the one you used is the Independent Chip Model where each chip is considered a lottery ticket and probabilities are calculated that you'll take 1st, 2nd, 3rd and so on.

Chopping the prize money in straight relation to chip count usually favors the large stacks when compared to an ICM chop.

To calculate what the chop would be with ICM requires the stack sizes and prizes for the six best. If you have them, I'd be happy to crunch the numbers.

[palman]

Backing into it from Party's payout structure....

1st $5600
2nd $3360
3rd $2240
4th $1568
5th $1344
6th $1120

me 280k chips, total chips in play 970k

Other stacks (approx)
200k
200k
140k
80k
70k

It's fairly obvious that chipcount deals favor the chipleader (imagine a situation where the chipleader has 50% of the chips in play 6 handed and it was divided by chipcount) And as such, the only other time I was in this situation live I rejected the deal 6 handed with 10% of the chips in play. But it should be interesting to see HOW much it favors the chipleader, so I can more accurately take into account any advantages/disadvantages I might have due to superior/inferior play late in tourneys.

[fiskebent]

An ICM chop would have distributed the prize money like this:

3275.683723
2843.426171
2843.426171
2446.198043
1958.502908
1864.762983

[dmk]

ICM is generally best. as chip leader though, you can always be a pompous bitch and ask for 4k or something instead of 3.2k. most of the shorter stacks will be desperate enough to chop up the rest accordingly

[Mez]

Palman -

Good to see another old time UPFer here. I think the deal you received was pretty much standard based on your equity.

From what I know of deal-making is from Suzuki:

The total payouts left $15,228 (sum of 1st-6th payouts from your 2nd post).
Everyone has at least $1,120 equity already (finish not worse than 6th).
That leaves 8,508 of equity related to chip counts.

You have 28.8% of the chips in play, or $2,450 in equity. So you should be paid out $2,450 + 1,120 = 3,570.

Getting $3,600 is a slight win ($30 more), but I would ask for more since you have two stacks with >5BB's, who are getting an extra $500-600 in equity to make a deal.

I'd want $4K, especially if I thought most there didn't have as much shorthanded experience, as I believe you do from SNGs.

Hope this helps.

[Mez]

[ QUOTE ]
An ICM chop would have distributed the prize money like this:

3275.683723
2843.426171
2843.426171
2446.198043
1958.502908
1864.762983

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting the below, is my math wrong? What tools do you use to figure out ICM payouts?

3,575.92
2,874.23
2,874.23
2,347.96
1,821.69
1,733.98

[LearnedfromTV]

In case anyone doesn't understand why a chip count chop always favors the chip leader with > 2 players, it is because there should be a limit on the value of his excess chips (the value of first prize) but a chip count chop ignores this. With more than two players, there is no way for the chip leader to win all of the remaining prize pool because some of that money is set aside for second. But a chip count chop assumes that he (almost) can (if he had all but two chips, for example).

An easy example (extreme because it is a case where the chip leader gets more than the maximum if you do a chip chop):

Three people left.

A has 80000 chips
B has 10000 chips
C has 10000 chips

Prizes are 50/30/20.

Everyone has locked up 20, so a chip count chop would split the remaining 40 by chip percentage. So A gets an additional 32 (80% of 40) and B and C get an additional 4 (10% of 40), making the split 52/24/24.

Obviously something is wrong, because A shouldn't be able to win more than 50. Basically, chip count chop ignores the value of finishing second. it would be correct if the structure were 60/20/20 (i.e. winner-take-all from this point forward).

ICM is more accurate because it calculates the probability of finishing in each position. I believe the method is to calculate the probability of winning via chip count and then apportion the remaining prizes according to chip count between the remaining players.

So:

A wins 80% of the time, half of those times B finishes second, half C finishes second.

B wins 10% of the time, 88.9% of those times A finishes second, 11.1% of those times C finishes 2nd

C wins 10% of the time, 88.9% of those times A finishes second, 11.1% of those times B finishes 2nd.

So A's cut is 80% of first prize + 17.8% of second prize + 2.2% of third prize, which equals ~46. You can do a similar calc for B and C, but obviously they split the rest, because their probabilities mirror each other.

[NoahSD]

Assuming equal skill levels, ICM chip values are as close to perfect as you can get. All of this stuff about them being good for short stacks or good for big stacks or good for medium stacks is ridiculous.

That said, when you are at the final table as a big stack say one of the following things:

1) "Chip count chop hurts big stack."
2) "Give me more or we play."
3) "I'm not taking chip chop because I think I'm better than the table."

As a shorty say one of the following:

1) "Chip count chop hurts small stack."
2) "Give me more or we play."
3) "I'm not taking chip chop because I think I'm better than the table."

As a mid stack say one of the following:

1) "Chip count chop hurts medium stack."
2) "Give me more or we play."
3) "I'm not taking chip chop because I think I'm better than the table."

Just be aware that option 1 is a lie.

[palman]

The reason I didn't say anything was that I was under the impression I was getting a steal as it was, and the whole "decision to make a deal" was done really really quickly with everyone just doing it at once, and I didn't want to pause the process at all. I thought I was getting a steal, and didn't want one of the shortstacks to rightfully back out of it.