Chasing a SNG 6-in-a-row bonus - help with strat plz! - Page 2

ger664 · #11 10-04-2007, 04:07 AM

If this is on AP get a superuser account. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Q.. · #12 10-04-2007, 04:26 AM

I had a 5 in a row winning streak once and doubt it would happen again soon.

sence25 · #13 10-04-2007, 04:29 AM

D'oh, before I read Q posted I thought I was gonna go for a solid brag with my 4-wins-in-a-row-once.

ceavou22 · #14 10-04-2007, 04:33 AM

Lol yea same, just had a 4 in a row recently which is my best.

BradleyT · #15 10-04-2007, 04:41 AM

Hmm so how do we calculate the chance of doing this if you were a break even player?

Winning 1 in a row is 16.67% so 6 in a row is = 0.00035772492293954904218123%. So 3.57 times out of 10,000 games...that seems high? Maybe someone good at maths can figure it out.

woohoo88 · #16 10-04-2007, 05:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm so how do we calculate the chance of doing this if you were a break even player?

Winning 1 in a row is 16.67% so 6 in a row is = 0.00035772492293954904218123%. So 3.57 times out of 10,000 games...that seems high? Maybe someone good at maths can figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it just .1667^6?

blackize · #17 10-04-2007, 05:30 AM

In about 20k SNGs I've never even won 4 in a row. 9mans only though

BradleyT · #18 10-04-2007, 05:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm so how do we calculate the chance of doing this if you were a break even player?

Winning 1 in a row is 16.67% so 6 in a row is = 0.00035772492293954904218123%. So 3.57 times out of 10,000 games...that seems high? Maybe someone good at maths can figure it out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't it just .1667^6?

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit - actually I think my number is off somehow.

.1667^6 = 0.000021459203535665809369. Multiplied by 100 for % = .002145%. Ohh, and my 3.57 out of 10,000 was obviously way off because .1% is 1 out of 1000 not 1 out of 10 like I was doing.

So...
.002145% = 21 times out of a million - AMIRITE?

$3.50 rake per game = $3,500,000 in rake. 21 wins = $166,667 each win to recoup rake?

Edit again -

Actually $2 of the $3.50 is "normal rake" so we can say $1,500,000 was paid to the jackpot. 21 wins = $71,428.57 each to break even on "jackpot rake".

blackize · #19 10-04-2007, 05:43 AM

.00035.../100 is .1667^7 I think

blackize · #20 10-04-2007, 05:47 AM

You shouldn't need to multiply by 100 to get the percentage I think since we were dealing with a percentage to start.