Four games to sort seven teams into four spots!

[Scary_Tiger]

Through 158 games, we have quite a race in the National League.

In the Central, the Cubs (83-75) try to fight off the upstart Brewers (81-77) led by the beastly Prince. The Cubs have a two game lead, and won the season series 9 to 6. Should they finish the season tied, they will play the tiebreaker at Wrigley. The Brewers are at home, but they have San Diego. While the Padres are struggling, they're still a better team than the Brewers and playing for their postseason lives as well. The Cubs are on the road, but against Florida and Cincinatti you can just about mark down a couple wins. Ship the Central to the Cubs. It would be a monumental upset for the Brewers to make it to the postseason at this point.

In the NL East and West, the Diamondbacks (88-70), Mets (87-71), Padres (87-71), Phillies (86-72), and Rockies (86-72) are all within two games of eachother.

The Rockies being here at all is amazing, and they've done it by winning their last 10 games. They're red hot and have one more game against the Dodgers, who were probably good enough to win the Central, but really who wasn't, and close the season at home against the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, while the Diamondbacks have the best record of the teams involved, looking at RS vs RA they're possibly worse than any of the teams involved, and the Dodgers, and the Braves. So as the Padres, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies beat up one another, the Mets finish the season against the Marlins and the Phillies get the Nationals. IMO, the wild card will come out of the East because of this.

But they play the games for a reason; it should be fun.

[MrFeelNothin]

Nice post.

Here are the coinflip results for HFA in tiebreak scenarios, determined earlier this month:

Wild Card:
Phillies @ Rockies
Phillies @ Padres
Padres @ Rockies

NL East:
Mets @ Phillies

NL Central:
Brewers @ Cubs

NL West:
Rockies @ Dbacks
Rockies @ Padres
Padres @ Dbacks

In the case of a 3way tie for the WC between the Phillies, Rockies and Padres:

Phillies @ Padres
Rockies @ Winner

I don't think they have flipped coins for potential WC ties involving the Mets or Dbacks.

[MrFeelNothin]

Edit:

3way tie would be:
Padres @ Philly
Rockies @ Winner

Philly won season series 4-3 against SD, not other way around.

[kyro]

Actually, 8 teams. Braves aren't mathematically eliminated yet, are they?

[kyro]

Also, if the Cubs and Brewers tied, wouldn't the Cubs win the division based on season series? Why would they play a tiebreaker game?

[kyro]

Ah never mind. I knew the Yankees would win the division over the Sox if they tied, but that's because they both had a playoff berth. Carry on.

[nutshot2]

this NL playoff picture is really sick.

funny thing is, this would be sick even without the wild card.

[kyro]

OK, this would be pretty awesome. I want the Mets, Phillies, DBacks, Padres and Rockies all to finish with an 89-73 record. Either that, or the Mets, Phillies Braves finish with an 87-75 record instead.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I want the Mets, Phillies, DBacks, Padres and Rockies all to finish with an 89-73 record.

[/ QUOTE ]


That would be so awesome.

[Dudd]

Basbeball Prospectus Odds report

67% chance of a 2 way tie, 17% chance of a 3 way tie, 5% chance of a 4 way tie. No mention of the 5 tie, probably so slim it's negligible.