20/180 Play along. Pair and flush draw on flop facing lots of action

[Sherman]

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Bet the flop. Can make better hands (right now) fold (like 88) and hands that are behind call (like AJ). Also, we pick up more good outs if we make a bare flush draw fold and are ahead of them if we call.

So yeah. Bet...around 600 or so. If raised, get it all in.

Edit: I know the first sentence doesn't make much sense. What I am trying to say is that 88 might fold to our bet which is fine and that AJ is likely to call, which is also fine. Even though we are favorite over both, we increase our equity in the pot when 88 folds and when AJ calls.

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I'm so rusty, but how is our equity increased when AJ smooth calls?

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Well, our equity in the current pot isn't increased, but we make a bet with a positive expectation. AJ is an underdog to our hand correct? Thus AJ has to put money in the pot with a negative expectation on the current bet (although he may still be correct to call with the current size of the pot).

[Nez477]

But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

[Nez477]

For example, we would want him to call our bet if we for some reason open-pushed, as all chips that enter will be when he had negative expectation

But equity isn't simply what actions happen on that street... yes he's a 'dog' on the flop but if he puts money in with a higher expectation on the turn was it still a negative expectation call on the flop?

[Sherman]

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

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This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

[BarryLyndon]

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

[Sherman]

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

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That's what I usually do. I am often short enough that it profitable to bet on the flop and then shove the turn.

[registrar]

Nice to have Nez back.

What's worse, betting and being flat-called or checking and it checking around to a turn when we miss, or for that matter when we don't?

Also, I don't think in a 20/180 we get flat-called very often by TP here because of the draws. We do get called by hands that fold to a second barrel.

That said, it's very easy to fire two barrels into some bastard that won't fold J9 on a blank turn, put him on that hand and then shove the rest in, to no good effect, on a blank river.

As I say, I don't mind a check but readless, I'd rather get chips in the middle and worry about being flatted when it happens. The next blind level is a pain in the arse with a 3k stack but not much less so with a 2.3k stack so I'd rather take some chances now.

[Nez477]

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But Sherman, doesn't the fact that we only have the best hand based on the fact that there are TWO cards to come factor in here?

I mean, if a blank hits the turn, which will happen often, we are OOP as a 30% dog

Our equity is based on the actions that happen now, not on further streets yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a concept that I am still trying to grapple with.

If we are a favorite on the flop with two cards to come, but become an underdog when the turn blanks, how should we proceed?

I'm not really sure. But my counter-argument to this one (b/c I see this one a lot) is this: What if the turn doesn't blank? What if the turn hits us exactly?

In spots like this I've noticed posters assume the turn is the worst case scenario (a blank) and now we are an underdog. But what if the turn is the best case scenario and now we are huge favorite?

I think the best bet is to proceed on the present street as if you are the favorite to win the hand trying to get as much $ in the pot as possible.

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What I do here is I assume that when I'm making my bet on the flop, that I'm basically committed on the turn, therefore creating a bet into one street into a virtual bet into two.

Barry

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With these stacks this is not possible IMO

[Nez477]

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Nice to have Nez back.

What's worse, betting and being flat-called or checking and it checking around to a turn when we miss, or for that matter when we don't?

Also, I don't think in a 20/180 we get flat-called very often by TP here because of the draws. We do get called by hands that fold to a second barrel.

That said, it's very easy to fire two barrels into some bastard that won't fold J9 on a blank turn, put him on that hand and then shove the rest in, to no good effect, on a blank river.

As I say, I don't mind a check but readless, I'd rather get chips in the middle and worry about being flatted when it happens. The next blind level is a pain in the arse with a 3k stack but not much less so with a 2.3k stack so I'd rather take some chances now.

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Thanks Registrar

Your comment about the blind structure made me realize how true that was in these 20/180's

I'm not by any means saying that betting out is a horrible move.. hell, it's my default in this situation

But thinking about it I want to know if it's right... based on the % of time that we receive action from our villian(s) and actions based on cards to come, etc.

Because without reads this is a logic/math question really I just don't know how to go about it

[Sherman]

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Your comment about the blind structure made me realize how true that was in these 20/180's

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As an FYI Nez, Stars has changed the structure of all of their MTTs in the last year. Even the 180s now have more levels than before.