Professional No-Limit Hold 'em Study Group Day 1

[Sean Fraley]

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Can I ask how you figure out the implied odds for the turn and then the river?

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Implied odds are by nature ambiguous and difficult to calculate, but it can be broken down into one simple question: "Are they enough?". You don't need to know the exact amount that villain will pay when you hit your draw, you just need to know whether or not villain will pay at least enough for you to break even after the pot is raked. To do this you do the follwing:

1) Calculate your drawing odds (adjusted for any outs that aren't clean). example (all values rounded for convenience): You (Button) are holding A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a board of 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and your extremely passive villain has bet both the flop and turn meaning that he has 9xTx. Your odds of hitting your flush are 4:1.

2) Calculate your pot odds. example cont.: The pot at the start of the turn is $8 and villain makes a 1/2 pot size bet of $4 giving you 3:1 pot odds ($4 to win $12).

3) Calculate the difference between what the pot is and what it would need to be to call profitably based on pure pot odds alone. example cont.: You need to win another $4 from villain to call profitably which means that villain would have to either make or call a bet of $4 on the river if the flush comes in.

4) Based on what you know of opponent determine whether or not you can actually get this money in the pot. example cont.: You have played with villain a great deal since he is a deep pocketed fish and is on your buddy list. You know that he will check to you if the flush comes in on the river. He will always call a bet of about 1/3 of the pot or less, always fold to a bet of about pot size, and his chances of calling a bet in between those sizes varies based on the size of the bet. The pot will be $16 dollars on the river and a bet of $5.50 will get called enough that you can fell reasonably safe of making your $4 plus at least a $1 profit.

[Panthro]

I wrote a tad on bet sizing here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...&PHPSESSID=
(shameless plug btw)

pretty basic stuff but relevant nonetheless.

[DeusExMachina]

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2) Calculate your pot odds. example cont.: The pot at the start of the turn is $8 and villain makes a 1/2 pot size bet of $4 giving you 3:1 pot odds ($4 to win $12).

3) Calculate the difference between what the pot is and what it would need to be to call profitably based on pure pot odds alone. example cont.: You need to win another $4 from villain to call profitably which means that villain would have to either make or call a bet of $4 on the river if the flush comes in.


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Can you please explain how to figure out how much you will need to call or bet after calling with implied odds? I think it should be simple math but I am having trouble.

thanks!

[Sean Fraley]

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2) Calculate your pot odds. example cont.: The pot at the start of the turn is $8 and villain makes a 1/2 pot size bet of $4 giving you 3:1 pot odds ($4 to win $12).

3) Calculate the difference between what the pot is and what it would need to be to call profitably based on pure pot odds alone. example cont.: You need to win another $4 from villain to call profitably which means that villain would have to either make or call a bet of $4 on the river if the flush comes in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please explain how to figure out how much you will need to call or bet after calling with implied odds? I think it should be simple math but I am having trouble.

thanks!

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You have to win an amount from your opponent(s) at least equal to the difference between the amount the pot needed to be to call profitably with your draw minus what the actual amount of the pot was. For example, if you are drawing to the best hand with 4:1 odds of hitting your draw and have to call $4 to win $12, you are $4 short of what you need to call profitably. In this case you would have to make $4 by showdown to make the call profitable.

[ev_slave]

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2) Calculate your pot odds. example cont.: The pot at the start of the turn is $8 and villain makes a 1/2 pot size bet of $4 giving you 3:1 pot odds ($4 to win $12).

3) Calculate the difference between what the pot is and what it would need to be to call profitably based on pure pot odds alone. example cont.: You need to win another $4 from villain to call profitably which means that villain would have to either make or call a bet of $4 on the river if the flush comes in.


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Can you please explain how to figure out how much you will need to call or bet after calling with implied odds? I think it should be simple math but I am having trouble.

thanks!

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This is an important thing, but I think you're approaching it wrong. In the example given above, you're getting 3:1 but you need 4:1, you should ask "can I make at least $4 more on the river?" If the answer is yes, the draw is profitable. Once you get to the river, things are different. Either you missed, and there's no need to worry about that $4, or you hit. When you hit, the $4 is now meaningless. Sure, to justify your past play, you need to make $4, but that was due to a probability thing... when you're trying to pick how much to bet on the river, you've hit your draw already (i.e. with probability = 1)so what you invested on the turn is a sunk cost and no longer figures into your decision making. Your new objective is to maximize your winnings NOW, even though making $4 would make your past play justifiable.

In other words, say you check/call with your flush on the turn, and you hit on the river. Now you figure that if you check, your opponent will always bet $6, but will fold to a raise. However, if you bet $15, you figure your opponent will be suspicious and call about 50% of the time. IT IS WRONG TO CHECK TO GUARANTEE THAT YOU MAKE YOUR "REQUIRED" $4. You bet the $15 because it has a higher expectation.

The take home: implied odds are important when you're making forward looking decisions based on the probability of the card, once there're no more cards to look forward to, forget your implied odds calcs... maximize your EV.

[BigBluffer]

In the example on pp. 22-23, on the turn a player bets $1000 all-in into a $9 pot and is called by 7 players who are all also all-in. We are asked what do we do (last to act here). The explanation and calculations that follow are all based on 47 unseen cards. Shouldn't that be 46 (we know our 2 cards and the 4 board cards)? I know, I know. It doesn't change the decision, or the reasoning, but I'm trying to learn the math behind the answers.

So, should the sentence at the top of p.23 read "you expect to win 9 times out of 46 times, or 19.6%? And the calculation of our equity in the pot would be (0.196)($9,009)=$1,766?

[helter skelter]

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I wrote down a few words on cbets and bet sizing.

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I liked this post.

I would like to see a cpost, like "when the cbet fails"

[folding_the_nuts]

HI!
I'm rereading this part of the book of the moment. A nice point. Authors uses 19,1 per cent , 19,56 per cent according to 9:46 and on page 306 (Appendix B) we get a number of 18,75 per cent.

What is more. It is written that folding would be a 721 dollar mistake.

According to my calculation it is a 912 Dollar mistake.
( Doesn't change the call decision at all)

EV = (0.191) (9009) - (0.809) (1000)
EV = +912 Dollar

This is just a thought but it would be nice to know what you guys think about it!!

Nutsfolder