Folding AA on dry board 175BB. Nit central?

[AssFrister]

I have not been out of line. Not much of a read on villan, only stats. He is 44/6 over 90 hands. AG: Flop: 1.22, Turn: 0.83,
River: 1.67. Total: 1.17


No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (5 handed)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($349.44)</font>
BB ($155.68)
UTG ($320.50)
MP ($361.20)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($388.54)</font>

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP folds, Button calls $22.

Flop: ($65) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $38</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $76</font>, Hero calls $38.

Turn: ($217) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $80</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $297

I have $240 left. Obviously if I put money in on the turn im committed.

Is this a terribly weak fold? It seems so bad to me looking at it now because I am putting him on just TT really. I was just put off by his AG numbers at the time. They are not really the numbers of someone willing to raise flop and bet turn in this big pot and deep with JJ or QQ. The turn bet sizing felt like milking and setting up an easy $160 into $400 for him on the river.

Would you just CRAI the turn? Bet fold is out because id be getting 5-1 to call and he may just call with a set anyway.

Also, I just noticed now, my PFR is $1 more than pot. Raise more preflop? Flop bet was 60% of pot. Bet more? If so, how much? In RR pot I usually bet about 2/3 pot, but should it be more given stacks? Raising more pre, and betting more on flop helps the hand play itself but maybe thats results orientated.

[Spy Dog]

3-bet smallish (minbet is fine in a huge pot) on the flop and push the turn. He has JJ/QQ/KK/AKs more often than TT/44/33.

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero ($349.44)
Button ($388.54)

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raises to $30

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[ QUOTE ]
He is 44/6 over 90 hands.

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ARRRRRRRRR INNNNNNN
EVERY FLOP ALL ACTION EVERY TIME

[Will221]

worst fold ever, do not fold this thanks

[igetjokes]

I think pf 3bet is fine, a PSR is $29 there like you said, which is what I usually 3bet to there.

I'd bet more on flop - you're right to cbet less in a rr pot but I'd probably make it low 40's - $42 or $44 or something.

I like checking turn, but I'd definitely not folding to an $80 bet here - its only 40% pot. I think c/c turn and probably c/c river is the line I'd take, altho I'm tempted to shove over his weak turn bet.

I think his range can be JJ+, and pretty much any T - JT up to AT are all possibilites, and then there's also overcards + diamonds.

The more I think about it, the more his line looks like overcards with diamonds. It's like he's betting for value but being careful not to commit - I think he shows up with something like AJdd here often.

Conclusion: c/c turn and river, or CRAI turn. I think you're in front here often enough for folding to be -EV.

[Oct0puz]

c/c turn and river is very bad. Every hand that beats us he will put us all-in with anyway, and if he has JJ-KK he may slow down. Just c/r ai on turn, he propably wont fold JJ-KK.

After the small turn bet I doubt he ever has diamonds, and if thats what you put him on calling is once again very bad.

[AssFrister]

Yeah I dont fancy c/cing turn and being faced with a diamond river. I think CRAI turn is best. I doubt he folds even FD+OC.

Im satisfied this is a terrible terrible fold [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] What an idiot.

[Dire]

Pretty bad since you're ahead of him almost always here. I also think checking the turn is bad here. This guy is pretty passive and could easily end up checking behind on the turn with JJ+. Just in general planning to check raise the turn against somebody with a 0.83 turn aggression isn't a good idea.

I'd bet/call the flop and lead the turn for $100, leaving around a 2/5th potsize bet for the river. He will have a very hard time getting away from an overpair with these bet sizings. He's your best friend for bloating the pot on the flop.

[BigPoppa]

I probably shove the flop here, but I also like calling the flop and leading a non-diamond turn.

I'm almost never folding AA in reraised pots unless the flop is QJT or something equally grim.

[aislephive]

3 bet the flop please.

Turn is a horrific fold, he probably raises 44/33 pf very rarely and is overplaying an overpair so much compared to when he has a set.