5/10 NL top two pair on raggedy board that keeps getting worse

[MTBlue]

Not enough hands on villain to give accurate stats. Laggy full ring player somewhere between 30/20 and 20/11.

I really don't give a damn about what you guys think about the preflop play.

The flop I decided to checkraise mostly I lead but sometimes I'll checkraise here.

The turn is where it gets interesting. He should put me on an ace, which bet/folds alot in full ring. Therefore is value betting should be primarily ace's up, but the range is wider than that in the blinds from my experience.
I decide to play a small pot and call.

The river is ugly for me, but should be a check behind for most of his two pairs. Who calls the bet, thinking that the flop check induced a bluff and who folds thinking that he semibluffed the turn with a flushdraw or 22?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+1 ($263.75)
MP1 ($467)
MP2 ($235)
MP3 ($1194)
CO ($445.80)
Button ($865)
Hero ($990)
BB ($1194)
UTG ($400)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, BB calls $20.

Flop: ($60) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

Turn: ($60) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $140</font>, Hero calls $90.

River: ($340) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $200</font> Hero ?

[crunny]

Heres what i think:

Preflop - I know u dont give a damn but why raise into a laggy player with junk OOP?

Flop - Going for a c/r is fine, but what makes you think hes going to bet? Any history?

Turn - Played fine

River - I think you are beat BUT i dont think he has a flush or straight. His turn raise had virtually 0 FE because as you mentioned he probably puts you on Ax, so in all likelihood the turn was a value raise with two pair or a set IMO. I don't think we can raise the river because our hand doesn't really look like a draw.

So fold.

[MTBlue]

I'll defend my preflop play briefly. We are headsup, though I am out of position, I play better than my opponent. This makes up for some of the weakness of the cards, (which really aren't that weak like 35% equity vs a normal calling range + Reasonable pair, hidden monster value ) Secondly he has to defend his blinds very loosely for me not to show an instaprofit preflop. I'm risking 25 to win 15. He needs to defend in the 40% range for me not to make money raising any two cards assuming I can breakeven, show a slight profit postflop.

To use this strategy it requires lots of checking when they do call. To combat this you have to check some monsters along with medium strength and weak hands.

The combination of factors makes this hand a raise preflop and the flop a c/r.

[BT2]

pre is fine if you feel comfortable with it
flop is fine if you have a good read. obviously you wiffed so bad move maybe
turn is fine, but at this point i would want a cheap showdown
river is a fold. i do not see him betting this strong with something that you beat.

[CalledDownLight]

I would call here. Correct me if my thought process is wrong, but I'm doubting whether he would check the flop behind with diamonds and then semi-bluff the turn with them when there is a good chance you just picked up top pair. Also, I think he bets the flop with A3 or A4 and you're not too scared of much else. A2 and 22 are logical worries, but the turn raise doesn't make a ton of sense from those hands as it turns them both into bluffs.

To me this is a flop that I would rather bet than check even though I understand that you have to balance your monster/air ration from the blinds. This is because even if you are raising really wide from the SB this flop is still not going to hit you hard too often. Thus, I think he will be inclined to bluff raise the flop with some frequency that is significant and semi-bluff almost any hand that makes sense, including diamonds and 56. He should be betting 10s, 34 and sets and sometimes diamonds so I don't think it mattrs if you c/r or cbet vs. that part of his range.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
i do not see him betting this strong with something that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]This is an awesome card to bluff at, so there are plenty of opponents who will fire with air here.

I think readless it's a fold, but a good read could turn it into a call.

[Unabridged]

you have to call river. he is taking this same play with any ace.