50NL: Draw spikes TP on river, but facing big river bet

[Bonesy]

I agree with Chomp here. Unless villain is a total donk, you would just be folding out weaker hands and possibly getting bombed off your hand.

I like the flop raise if raising at all.

[Shoe Lace]

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We have absolutely no reason to want to strongarm these hands out of the pot.

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I think with our holdings this is exactly what we need to do. If you call on the turn you have no idea if your ace is good or even live. You're also not sure if you'll have to call a river bet.

If you bump it to $15 on the turn then those weaker hands fold most likely, and if not... they are going to check the river allowing you to see a cheap showdown. You end up losing less this way.

If he shoves on you, then it's read dependant. With no reads it's a pretty easy laydown.

If your flush makes it on the river, he didn't shove the turn and villain has a nice hand (say K9 except the 9 was a diamond), a set, or even AKo villain will probably lead out not giving you credit for the flush.

Raise him on the river, and depending on his strength he might call you, if not... you still got a lot of value from your flush when your draw makes it. Even if he check/folds the river, you still got decent value.

[Bowlboy]

I like a raise on the flop here because it looks less like you are on the flush draw, and we have position so a free card is likely if villain has something like KQ. In this particular hand we want a cheaper showdown with our turned top pair if we can get it since KQ and KJ are probably a good part of villains range.

[monkover]

raising the flop is fine but not necessary. I think it´s played fine until the river. I´d never call here b/c i don´t think we beat a lot of hand sin viallain´s range. Which hands bet all the way that we are ahead of? I can see a lot of hands in his range that have us crushed though.

[Check_The_Nuts]

call/call is clearly the better line in my mind. If he has a flush draw he's drawing to the 2nd best hand, and I'm not too sure he'll bluff a blank river very often. Also, leading twice into the preflop raiser is a really strong move so I'm not sure you have much FE either. With him triple barrelling, the only hands he would do that with are AK+ or a set (for most 50NL players, who are scared to go broke with one pair). So your probably ok calling this river bet.

All that said, I still don't mind pushing the turn either. Mostly because its the start of the session and pushing here makes you look really loose.

edit: lol I like the minraise turn line. Not even joking, it'll probably work.

[sightless]

Raising turn is bad IMO. You will chase out weak hands, and get action from those that have you beat.

I like flop and turn as played i fold river and pay close attention to what this guy shows down

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You're also not sure if you'll have to call a river bet.

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IMO in this spot raising just to find out if our ace is good or not is BAD. We have the draw to the nuts and this guy seems to really like his hand. Just get to river and let his bet sizes tell you how much does he like his hand.

[Nick C]

I think it's fine. I'm not happy about the size of Villain's river bet, but it could be a frustration bet, and it is good for our chances that that ace wasn't there until the turn. (It also helps a little that the wheel draw was there, since Villain could have missed his gutshot but spiked a worse top pair instead.)

On the flop, I think a raise is all right. But so is calling, and really, I think I favor a call. A "free" turn card isn't a free card if we paid for it already with a flop raise that quite possibly was bigger than Villain's turn bet would have been, so it's mainly useful on those occasions when we catch on the turn and have thus built a pot for ourselves and disguised our hand. That is, I think the main benefit of a flop raise comes from the fact that we won't always want to take a free turn card and would prefer to make a sizeable bet instead. Villain's smallish stack size limits the benefit of this, though.

If we have any folding equity on a flop raise, then that's great too, but I'm not so optimistic about that in this particular spot.

If Villain is betting a worse draw, then a flop raise should slow him down, but we may still be in the awkward spot of facing a river bluff (after we check the turn) and wondering whether or not to call with ace-high. (And unless the river bluff is small, it's going to be hard to do that.) Meanwhile, if Villain just has a draw, a flop call could itself easily slow him down -- especially with that king on the board.

On the next street, raising the turn basically just seems bad to me (unless we have some reason to believe Villain will stubbornly call with, say, KJ or 77, and I don't think we do). There's a really good chance that Villain has, like, a 4-outer at this point, and he's not so deep-stacked that letting him stay in the pot is a major worry. Of course, if he's betting the turn as the last money he puts in the pot UI, then, sure, we might as well raise now, but I don't see why we should assume that's what's going on.

[Lurker.]

i probably raise his flop bet and then bet the turn. raising the turn is bad (folds out weaker hands and better hands push/call you). As played river is a fold.