WSOP hand: Turned TPTK vs sudden heavy action

[ShawnHoo]

(Since the MTT forum deals primarily with no-limit hands, I'm posting this here.)

This one came up during Monday's $1500 WSOP tourney. We're at 400-800 blinds, 8-16 limit. I have a stack of around 12-13K to start the hand.

I pick up AdKc UTG+1 and raise. I am called by the SB (has around 12K or so) and BB (7K or so). I have been playing with both of them for the past couple of hours and feel like I have a generally good read of their play.

SB: A 40-something white dude who's sporting a Full Tilt jersey that he got from playing online so much. He seems pretty solid and aggressive enough. He has a very pronounced tell that he gives off when he has or thinks he has a big hand -- he moves his eyes very rapidly and smirks.

BB: A 40-something black dude that has shown absolutely no aggression thusfar at the table. On at least four occasions, I have seen him fold when he was *first to act* (including one time when he was heads-up on the river).

Me: I have built up my stack primarily by getting into showdowns with premium hands and haven't gotten caught getting out of line. I have been very quiet for the last level or so.

Flop: JcTd5c

Checked to me, I bet. SB check-raises and is giving off the tell. BB thinks for a while and calls. I call.

Turn: Kh

SB fires out a bet. BB thinks for maybe 2 seconds and raises.

My play?

[DeathDonkey]

Fold fast.

-DeathDonkey

[ship it pls]

agree with dd, you are close to dead here, maybe a king saves you, most likely only the queen and it may be for a chop

[HOWMANY]

For your hand to be best here you need to be in quite the magical situation where the passive guy has KQ exactly and for the guy's "tell" to mean AJ or maybe AcTc. I really don't think the decision here is that close, especially in a donkament where making a mistake for 3+ bets of your 8ish bet stack moves you toward doomsday.

[andyfox]

Maybe I'm missing something, but this sure looks like a fold. Your bet of the flop and call of the check-raise would sure look like A-K and yet when a king comes there's a bet and a raise in front of you. SB is giving off "the tell," and BB thought for a while before calling on the flop, which likely rules out K-Q.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

This is *much* closer than people are making it out to be.

SB's hand looks like one of the following: AJ, JT, T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or 55, and you're really not doing all that badly against that range, especially if he isn't playing the offsuit combinations of JT. KJ is possible but if so than QJ is probably possible as well. I don't expect him to show up here with JJ or TT very often since it sounds like he'd have re-raised with those before the flop.

BB's hand looks very much like KQ or K, with the next-most-likely possibility being Q9s. I'm not worried about him having then nuts (AQ) since I doubt that's making such a loose peel on the flop, especially in a tournament setting.

Anyway I'm getting you in about the 23-25% equity range considering the possibility that you have the best hand plus your chances to improve. In a ring game, I'd be highly tempted to 3-bet for a free showdown since you can plausibly represent two hands (KK, AQ) that they almost certainly cannot beat. You might even get the SB to lay down JT. In a tournament, I don't know; I suppose it depends in part on how tough you think your table is.

[DeathDonkey]

Nate in a tournament I think a normally close fold becomes a trivially easy fold because of the relative value of chips. What I mean is, if this is anywhere near a 0 EV situation, he should err on the side of chip preservation.

-DeathDonkey

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Nate in a tournament I think a normally close fold becomes a trivially easy fold because of the relative value of chips. What I mean is, if this is anywhere near a 0 EV situation, he should err on the side of chip preservation.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I suck at tournaments; they take the whole fun out of limit hold 'em. Looks like I'm going to try my hand at the $3000 event in a couple weeks, though.

The slight counterbalance to this point is that in a tournament the SB needs to seriously consider folding JT to this action; in fact, if we posted the hand from his perspective and that was his hand, I suspect we'd get a lot of arguments for a fold. So there's some Gap Concept in play here.

[DeathDonkey]

Yeah you're right about that, its a double edged sword. I'm planning to play the 5k "world championship" on sunday so hopefully I'll have fun stories or lots of money.

-DeathDonkey

[ShawnHoo]

Do you guys think this is a closer decision if I either have a ton of chips/if I'm just down to one BB?

The guy I was most worried about here was the BB, FWIW. I definitely thought the SB could be betting a pair/draw type of hand that I could beat in a big pot.