AS-Something Game Thread

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

Im guessing like 5 people are Bobo's and they will all counterclaim each other for hilarity.

[LuckayLuck]

** DARING PLAN **

The following people nearly invariably get lynched by must-lynch (unless they're wolves) and don't get eaten much as villagers. They are also hard to read (debatable):

Eskimo
FMX
Luckay
NichP
Patton
Spook

Therefore, if we had to lynch RIGHT NOW, PERIOD, without ANY sort of read at all, it should be one of those lynched. Extrapolating this slightly, it means that at the end of day 1, all of the above people are above average candidates for lynching.


Summary: On day 1, a good goal is to lynch someone who generally gets lynched by must-lynch and gets eaten a below-average number of times. See list of six above.

** DARING PLAN **


Let me fire this one off:
Lynch Nicholasp

btw, if we want to bandwagon nich, early in the day is the only kosher time to do it, so let's get it started right away

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

luckay: ive been lynched once out of about 30 or so games. (actually twice but i refuse to count the one that i got lynched day 1 as an ia)

Patton and spook also regularly make end games.

where the hell did you get that list?

[LuckayLuck]

** REVOLUTIONIZING DAY ONE POSTS AND VOTES **

[ QUOTE ]
ASPoker8

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an atrocious first post because: It is a random vote with NEGATIVE EV implications, because ASPoker is above average easy enough to read. Also, he gets eaten an above average amount of times.

** IMPROVING THE WEREWOLF GAME OF VILLAGERS ACROSS POG **

[LuckayLuck]

[ QUOTE ]
luckay: ive been lynched once out of about 30 or so games. (actually twice but i refuse to count the one that i got lynched day 1 as an ia)

Patton and spook also regularly make end games.

where the hell did you get that list?

[/ QUOTE ]

In long games? Seriously?
I disagree, though my memory is not the best, and my memory is also somewhat selective and biased

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

You disagree with what? you just picked random names didnt you?

[flsc]

Just checking in...
I will vote later on today.

[fmxda]

Seer without n0 peek gets half as many peeks so list should be divided 2:1

Luckay, that strategy with the list of 6 players omits the possibility that they might be better than average wolf-finders, or good at endgames (not saying they are, and especially not because I'm on the list [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Actually if I had to lynch right now with no information I'd go with a low content poster like AS8 or FCBL, or an unknown like ATrebek, flsc, or TheSmell.

[LuckayLuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You disagree with what? you just picked random names didnt you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't pick random names. I can expand my list to explain why these people stuck out in particular...


READABLE (need to work on their wolf game)
========
ATrebek
Dustin
FCBL
Flsc
JaredL
JCool
Zurvan


WOLF BAIT
=========
AS8
Boiler
DMK
Herbie
MDoranD


THE REST
========
Eskimo
FMX
Jack Bando
Luckay
NichP
Patton
Spook
TheSmell
Tokyo


I added smell, tokyo, and jack bando(!!) on there because on reflection and category sorting, I couldn't really place those 3 in categories either

and yes, I realize that these are all extremely broad sweeping generalizations and that people's wolf games evolve and improve over time. But come on, you have to admit: there is at least one person on POG that you would HATE to see get lynched on day 1, if you're a villager, because you "KNOW" you can read them. It varies for everyone. But it's there.

So I'm just taking this to the next logical conclusion: We should lynch one of those 9 today, in a completely neutral situation with no reads at all -- because, it is likely that they WILL be lynched BY must lynch. Which, if we take "Day 1" to its next logical conclusion, means that if we get it over with on day 1, then that's great!


Okay guys, this was all pretty extreme philosophy, Zurvan / MDD is going to come in here and call all this rambling "complete garbage", Kyro is doing the face-in-palm thing, but whatever

I'm brave enough to get this out in the open

[fmxda]

[ QUOTE ]
It is a random vote with NEGATIVE EV implications, because ASPoker is above average easy enough to read. Also, he gets eaten an above average amount of times.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm not sure when first votes EVER had EV implications... but I disagree with your approach that we should lynch people who are hard to read. I think the criteria should be more of a "how helpful they are as a villager" vs "how deadly they are as a wolf" metric. Your ability to read them is just variance IMO (of course reducing variance is always good if possible).