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#1
04-20-2007, 02:19 AM
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Optimum W$CF (won $ when called flop)
I've been wondering for a while about this statistic because it seems to lend itself to relatively simple analysis in PLO.
In theory, since you're almost always getting at least 2:1 you'd think that the optimum value for this stat should be somewhere under 33%, perhaps as low as 25% or less. However, in my data base, it's exceedingly rare to see numbers anywhere near this. In fact, mine is quite a bit above this and it makes me think that I should be calling a lot more than I am. In paricular, I'm thinking about those situations where a scare card hits on the turn after you've been pumping up the pot with the nuts. But I suppose there's also all those situations where someone beats at an orphan pot and you fold bottom 2 pair, or TPTK. Any thoughts on this? I should also add that this seems like a useful stat to exploit from your opponents, i.e. bluff the daylights out of players with numbers over 50% when scare cards hit. 
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#2
04-20-2007, 02:35 AM
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Re: Optimum W$CF (won $ when called flop)
what is your specific question? give me a clear example. at first it seems like you're talking about a set v. flush draw but then you start talking about TpTk ... like give us all a clear example of a situation that seems like it's a 60/4o that you feel comes out being a 40/60 online
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#5
04-20-2007, 08:48 AM
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Re: Optimum W$CF (won $ when called flop)
[ QUOTE ]
In fact, mine is quite a bit above this and it makes me think that I should be calling a lot more than I am. In paricular, I'm thinking about those situations where a scare card hits on the turn after you've been pumping up the pot with the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] Ciaffone says as much about if you have a strong interest in a pot, you should not automatically give up if a scare card comes. But as Haagen is saying, you really have to consider some specific situations. I think if you are playing deepstacks and are OOP, if you 100% fire away when scare card hits you can be exploited. Conversely, there are certainly plenty of opponents and situations where you should fire away. Knowing the right % of time to do stuff is really the trick isn't it. Can anyone point me to articles online that deal with this so I can read further? BigDave, is this the kind of stuff you write about in Euro-Cardplayer? I know a Master Chef who will tell anyone the ingredients to his meals, but never the proportions.
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#6
04-20-2007, 09:11 AM
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Re: Optimum W$CF (won $ when called flop)
Referring to topic: I'm usually around 30-35% for win % when flop is seen
Referring to what topic was supposed to be: I think I've been around 54% for a long time.
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#7
04-20-2007, 09:52 AM
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Re: Optimum W$CF (won $ when called flop)
[ QUOTE ]
In theory, since you're almost always getting at least 2:1 you'd think that the optimum value for this stat should be somewhere under 33%, perhaps as low as 25% or less. [/ QUOTE ] Wouldn't you need to weight this number to account for the percentage of time you are on a busted draw?
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