Magic Glasses Variant

[Mr Rick]

I'm probably too busy checking out the waitresses and the female dealers with these glasses to do too well at the table.

[gholizad]

I remember Doyle says in his Super System that he can beat any home game consisting of mediocre players without looking at his cards, assuming that other player dont know he is not looking.
I dont think you can ever win a tournament though b/c even if you are a massive chip leader, the games becomes a pushbot fest once stacks get short so you have to keep folding to all in bets. Eventually at some point you get blinded out.

[chief_]

You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

With these glasses you'd prefer to get HU vs an opponent with a marginal holding, or a very good but vulnerable holding, and be deep. Also important is being able to put the last bet in (so opponents bluffing all in isn't really a viable option for them, and even if they do it they will do it at a point where you have little invested).

In rare instances: where both you and your opponent(s) are going to ultimately play the board (eg the final board will read AKQJT), would random hands like K8 or Q3 or AA appear? IF it is possible to get other holdings besides 23 24 etc in pending chop situations that is an automatic tipoff that the entire hand will be a chop and you can play accordingly to freeroll a pot size of your choosing.

You are certainly a big winning player. Your new game becomes "wait for good (lock) situations where people put moderate amounts of money in with hands they are very comfortable folding to huge bets from unknowns." Anytime someone bluffs at you, that is free money.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP:
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if you played in the main event 1000 times, what would your average finish be? how often would you finish less than 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guesstimate was 99% of the time. You'll place 2nd about 10 out of the 1000 WSOP events.

[Mr Rick]

I'm thinking that you could finish ahead of 2nd place money if you negotiated once it got heads up. Also, I don't know whats allowed in the WSOP - but imagine if you were way ahead of a lone opponent and agreed to a 50/50 split of the 1st+2nd prize money if he would concede the bracelet (i.e., go all in with you and then fold).

[alphatmw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP:
[ QUOTE ]
if you played in the main event 1000 times, what would your average finish be? how often would you finish less than 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guesstimate was 99% of the time. You'll place 2nd about 10 out of the 1000 WSOP events.

[/ QUOTE ]how do you think you will bust out 99% of the time? i can't think of a situation in which i'm not at the final table as a huge chip leader.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP:
[ QUOTE ]
if you played in the main event 1000 times, what would your average finish be? how often would you finish less than 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guesstimate was 99% of the time. You'll place 2nd about 10 out of the 1000 WSOP events.

[/ QUOTE ]how do you think you will bust out 99% of the time? i can't think of a situation in which i'm not at the final table as a huge chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime you go all-in to get someone to fold, but they don't. And if you never go all-in to get someone to fold, then you'll probably lose a lot of money to big bets, then folding to their all-in raises. And if you ever get short-stacked, you're in really bad shape. I have no idea how to calculate a better number, but I think the glasses getting you to the top 2% of the pack is about as good as you can hope for given that you always have the worst hand.

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP:
[ QUOTE ]
if you played in the main event 1000 times, what would your average finish be? how often would you finish less than 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guesstimate was 99% of the time. You'll place 2nd about 10 out of the 1000 WSOP events.

[/ QUOTE ]how do you think you will bust out 99% of the time? i can't think of a situation in which i'm not at the final table as a huge chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime you go all-in to get someone to fold, but they don't. And if you never go all-in to get someone to fold, then you'll probably lose a lot of money to big bets, then folding to their all-in raises. And if you ever get short-stacked, you're in really bad shape. I have no idea how to calculate a better number, but I think the glasses getting you to the top 2% of the pack is about as good as you can hope for given that you always have the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to try to push people off of hands all the time, and you won't have to risk too many chips. All you have to do is steal the blinds and antes more than once per orbit and the money will roll in. By the time a couple of days of this go by, you should be a huge stack -- which means you'll be able to apply even more pressure in marginal situations that you might have passed up early on. I think you make the final table with a monster stack a huge portion of the time. After that, I would be most worried about you getting run over when there are 3-4 players left, as they would rob your blinds with impunity as short stacks -- since you wouldn't have enough play to re-steal or call and bluff the flop, and the blinds would come around too often for you to wait for good spots.

[alphatmw]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You will finish 2nd or worse 100% of the time. You cannot win a tournament without winning a showdown at least once.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP:
[ QUOTE ]
if you played in the main event 1000 times, what would your average finish be? how often would you finish less than 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

My guesstimate was 99% of the time. You'll place 2nd about 10 out of the 1000 WSOP events.

[/ QUOTE ]how do you think you will bust out 99% of the time? i can't think of a situation in which i'm not at the final table as a huge chip leader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anytime you go all-in to get someone to fold, but they don't. And if you never go all-in to get someone to fold, then you'll probably lose a lot of money to big bets, then folding to their all-in raises. And if you ever get short-stacked, you're in really bad shape. I have no idea how to calculate a better number, but I think the glasses getting you to the top 2% of the pack is about as good as you can hope for given that you always have the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]i meant give me a specific hand where you see this actually happening. and remember that someone actually has to have more chips than you for you to bust out. you're going to be accumulating chips like crazy from the get go.

we're not trying to push anyone off middle pair, weak kicker here when we know we're going to get much easier oppourunties. i don't see how a competent player wouldn't make the final table a large majority of the time.

[KipBond]

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You don't have to try to push people off of hands all the time, and you won't have to risk too many chips. All you have to do is steal the blinds and antes more than once per orbit and the money will roll in.

[/ QUOTE ]

More than once because you'll probably lose your blinds most orbits. Unless you risk losing a lot of chips.

So can you steal the blinds 2+ times per orbit? That means nobody raised before you +20% of the time, at the same time nobody after you has a decent hand. I don't see that happening that much. Could be wrong; any math wizards reading this crazy thread? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Once the blinds/antes get big, and you have a # of short stacks at the table looking to push it all in, your plan will be very hard to execute. You lose to every all-in bluff. Not good.