25/50 Full Ring unraised pot bottom set

[D.L.M.]

how much is this guy gonna raise it to as his bluff?

[DougieG]

IMO I could see the argument for him to overbet AI (assuming we're talking pure bluff here). It seems likely that villian mixes in a decent amount of overbets for value/bluff overbets and thus, I would imagine, almost any river bluff raise by villian is AI. Although like I said the hand is a bit (ha!) over my head. I think the point is that our hand is fairly obvious and that can be exploited. We are OOP against a tough tough opponent, and we are pretty sure he knows our hand if we make a value bet. I think there's better spots at this or any table, and minimizing the damage is the smart play.

Edit: meh, AI for his overbet seems extreme. If we bet 5-700 I wouldn't be surprised to see 3k as his bluff.

[D.L.M.]

what im saying is, that sine the draw accually hit, but its not an obvious draw, id say that its kinda hard to represent, so villian is much more likely to hold the straight if he raises, but his range is much wider than that, so the ? is how many POSSIBLE great hands does he have here, not many compared to all the gay two pair and top pair hands well see. so alot of these hands which is the majority of villians range here will call but may not bet, if he raises id say its a remote possibility of a bluff raise.

[DougieG]

Why is it a remote possibility of a bluff raise? Our hand is pretty obvious (again just my opinion, if we're limping lots of SC and larger pairs too it'd change) and it is vulnerable. Also, since our hand is fairly obvious to villian, why would he feel obliged to ever call with "gay two pair and top pair hands"?

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it a remote possibility of a bluff raise? Our hand is pretty obvious (again just my opinion, if we're limping lots of SC and larger pairs too it'd change) and it is vulnerable. Also, since our hand is fairly obvious to villian, why would he feel obliged to ever call with "gay two pair and top pair hands"?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. We wouldn't overlimp big pairs (possibly but the likelihood is quite low.) To villain a valuebet on the river definitely has turned our hand face up, since we led into a 6 way flop. To be perfectly honest I'd be happy for it to just have it check downed on the river, and showdown the best hand.

[DougieG]

[ QUOTE ]
To be perfectly honest I'd be happy for it to just have it check downed on the river, and showdown the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is even more true against this particular villian I would assume. I feel like the reason checking is so clearly the right move is because of the reasonable possibility of a bluff raise by THIS villian. If donkish guy was in position and "great player" had checked to us I would understand a value bet since a river check raise bluff wouldn't be too likely. I think given that it's this villian, and we're OOP with a hand that is less than disguised, any money made after this turn and the action (IMO) is icing on the cake.

[D.L.M.]

we didnt check this turn, to have the river checked. what did op do?

[DougieG]

OP bet, read Strassa's comments (I think they're about this exact hand). I would be really interested to see what OP thinks about the discussion that has insued, an awful lot of SSNL guys chiming in with varying opinions. It'd be nice to see what someone who is playing 5kNL has to say about why he played it the way he did and what not.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
OP bet, read Strassa's comments (I think they're about this exact hand). I would be really interested to see what OP thinks about the discussion that has insued, an awful lot of SSNL guys chiming in with varying opinions. It'd be nice to see what someone who is playing 5kNL has to say about why he played it the way he did and what not.

[/ QUOTE ]

not the same hand, just a similar one vs possibly the same opponent

[DougieG]

Ah, thanks future, missed Fonkey's post saying where it was from.